专家分享：纯碱行业现状与展望

Summary of the Soda Ash Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash industry experienced a total production increase of 1.8% year-on-year to 28.19 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, but the capacity utilization rate decreased by 100 basis points to nearly 25% [1][2] - Heavy soda ash production decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, while light soda ash production increased by 6%, indicating structural changes in the market [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The real estate market downturn significantly impacted flat glass demand, leading to an 18% decrease in photovoltaic glass production in 2025, although light soda ash demand grew by 10% [1][4] - Exports of soda ash surged, with a year-on-year increase of over 100% from January to July, while imports nearly stagnated, resulting in an estimated total import-export volume of about 2 million tons for the year [1][5] - The production methods of ammonia soda and joint soda are facing losses, while natural soda still has profit margins [1][6] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to generate over 700,000 tons of additional soda ash demand annually, with policies likely to prevent raw material price increases [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The soda ash market is currently under significant supply pressure, despite a reduction in heavy soda ash production and an increase in light soda ash production [3] - The overall demand for flat glass has seen a notable decline, with a 6.6% drop in demand in the first nine months of the year [3][8] - The cumulative glass production in 2025 is expected to decrease by 8%, but monthly production has exceeded the previous year's levels since September, leading to inventory accumulation [8][10] Future Projections - By the end of 2026, new soda ash capacity is projected to reach 6.3 million tons, bringing total capacity to over 47 million tons, indicating significant supply pressure ahead [1][9] - The top five companies in the industry hold a market concentration of 42%, suggesting increased competition [9] Profitability and Cost Structure - Current losses for ammonia soda production are approximately 300 RMB/ton, while joint soda production faces a loss of 100 RMB/ton [6][13] - Natural soda production remains profitable, with a selling price of approximately 900-1,000 RMB/ton against a cost of 700 RMB/ton, yielding a profit of over 200 RMB/ton [6][13] - The production costs for ammonia soda and joint soda differ, with ammonia soda being more cost-effective due to lower raw material prices [13] Inventory and Market Balance - The soda ash market is currently in a state of oversupply, with an excess of 1.39 million tons in 2025, despite an increase in exports to 1.9 million tons [18][28] - The forecast for 2026 indicates a potential supply-demand gap of 4.5 million tons, necessitating production cuts to achieve market balance [19][28] Conclusion - The outlook for the soda ash and glass markets is not optimistic, with a need for supply clearing to restore market balance [20] - The industry faces challenges from high inventory levels and the need for production adjustments to cope with declining demand, particularly from the real estate sector [25][28]