煤炭“真正反内卷”的要素与实现路径

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry in China, particularly its efforts to combat "involution" and stabilize prices [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the importance of stabilizing electricity and coal prices to prevent harmful competition, aiming to raise unreasonable low prices to reasonable levels while avoiding price surges [1][3]. - The coal industry's strategy to combat involution consists of two phases: reducing production to raise prices and eliminating excess capacity to adjust the industry structure. Currently, the industry is in the first phase, focusing on production cuts to restore profitability [1][4]. - Supply-side reforms align with the goals of combating involution, encompassing both production cuts and capacity reduction, which are essential for long-term stability [5]. - The reduction of capacity and structural adjustments are closely linked to carbon neutrality policies, as coal consumption is expected to decline gradually. This necessitates capacity reduction to match changing demand and ensure sustainable development [6]. Future Predictions - China is projected to reach its peak carbon emissions from thermal power by 2027 and from the coal industry by 2028. By around 2030, there may be an oversupply of capacity, requiring policy adjustments to address this [7]. - The coal industry has undergone significant policy changes and market fluctuations since 2010, with a notable recovery in profitability and price stability achieved through supply-side reforms and capacity reductions [8]. Important but Overlooked Content - The SASAC's current approach to price control focuses on maintaining reserve and peak-shaving capacity, allowing for flexible adjustments in production rates to stabilize prices, contrasting with the 2016 strategy of aggressive capacity withdrawal [9]. - The reasonable coal price is estimated at 750 RMB/ton, with potential short-term fluctuations due to policy execution uncertainties, possibly rising to 800-860 RMB/ton before stabilizing back to 750 RMB/ton [10][11]. - The upcoming policies expected to be introduced by the end of this year or early next year will further drive the coal industry's capacity reduction and structural adjustments [9].