全球股票洞察：如何对冲美元侵蚀美国收益的风险Global Equity Volatility Insights_ How to hedge risk USD eats your US return

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Insights - Industry Focus: The insights primarily revolve around the global equity market, particularly the performance of US equities, the impact of the USD, and the AI sector's influence on market dynamics [1][2][28][29]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. AI Bubble Potential: The analysis suggests that the AI bubble has room to grow, with current market conditions indicating that US equity indices and megacap tech stocks are not yet at peak levels associated with historical asset bubbles [1][28][29]. 2. USD Weakness Impact: The divergence between US equities and the USD has been significant in 2025, with the S&P 500 up approximately 14% YTD in USD but flat or negative for EUR-denominated investors. This historical trend indicates that significant SPX rallies often coincide with USD weakness [2][78][79]. 3. Kospi Call Spreads: The Kospi market is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the AI theme, with call spreads offering a potential 6.3x payout. However, investors are advised to prepare for a potential volatility reset as the rally fades [3]. 4. VIX ETP Positioning: The long VIX ETP complex has seen historic inflows, creating rich risk premia in the VIX market. The positioning is different from the pre-Volmageddon era, suggesting that current long ETPs may not exacerbate volatility in a risk-off event [45][47][53]. 5. Currency Hedging Strategies: For EUR-based investors, hedging US equity exposure through quanto options is recommended, as they offer a marginally higher premium compared to vanilla options. This strategy is particularly relevant given the current USD weakness [76][85]. Additional Important Insights 1. Historical Context of Bubbles: The analysis of historical asset bubbles indicates that extreme positioning metrics often precede market peaks, suggesting caution as aggregated metrics approach critical thresholds [30][37][42]. 2. Market Dynamics: The report discusses the relationship between implied and realized volatility across various indices, indicating that while equity stress has slightly increased, FX stress has decreased, reflecting a complex interplay in market conditions [11][19]. 3. Investment Strategies: The report outlines specific trading strategies, including monetizing the steepness of the VIX futures curve and utilizing VIX put calendars to manage risk effectively [74][75]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment strategies.