2025-09-28 14:57Summary of UBS Global Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Global Pharmaceuticals, specifically focusing on GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) market for obesity and type-2 diabetes (T2D) treatment Key Points and Arguments Market Forecasts - UBS has revised its 2030 global GLP-1 sales forecast from over $150 billion to $130 billion, with expectations of approximately $80 billion in sales for obesity and $50 billion for T2D [1][2] - Despite the downgrade, the GLP-1 and incretin market is projected to be a significant growth driver in global pharmaceuticals, with a 19% sales CAGR from 2024 to 2030E [1] Patient Volume Growth - UBS forecasts that the number of patients taking GLP-1 will increase from 13 million in 2024 to 52 million in 2030, representing a 26% volume CAGR [2] - The obesity treatment category is expected to expand significantly, from 4.4 million patients in 2024 to 34 million patients in 2030E [2] Pricing Dynamics - Price erosion is anticipated to be more significant in the obesity category compared to T2D, particularly in the US market [2] - In the US obesity market, UBS forecasts a 7.0% compounded price erosion from 2024 to 2030E, compared to 4.7% for T2D [2] Market Share Insights - The current duopoly of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is expected to remain largely intact until 2030, with Eli Lilly projected to gain market share [3] - By 2025, UBS forecasts a market share of 51.5% for Novo Nordisk and 48.5% for Eli Lilly, shifting to 56.7% for Eli Lilly and 38.9% for Novo Nordisk by 2030 [3] Treatment Duration Challenges - Novo Nordisk reported an average treatment duration of approximately 7 months for Wegovy, with no significant improvement expected by 2030 [4] - The ability to improve treatment duration is seen as a key unmet medical need, as many patients may not experience the full health benefits without longer treatment durations [4] Financial Projections - The total global GLP-1 market sales are projected to grow from $11.4 billion in FY 2022 to $130.7 billion by FY 2030 [7] - US sales are expected to rise from $7.8 billion in FY 2022 to $87.6 billion by FY 2030 [7] Obesity and T2D Market Breakdown - The global GLP-1 sales for obesity are projected to increase from $875 million in FY 2022 to $79.5 billion by FY 2030 [8] - For T2D, global GLP sales are expected to grow from $10.5 billion in FY 2022 to $51.3 billion by FY 2030 [9] Additional Important Insights - The report highlights potential risks in the biopharma sector, including disappointing product launches, regulatory decisions, and biogeneric competition [10] - The investment landscape in small and mid-cap biotech is characterized by high volatility and is more suitable for investors with a high risk/reward profile [10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the UBS conference call regarding the GLP-1 market, its growth potential, pricing dynamics, and competitive landscape, while also addressing the associated risks in the biopharma sector.