从 IGBT 到碳化硅（SiC）-全球功率半导体巨头能否在与中国的竞争中保持领先-Japan_EU Semi_ IGBT to SiC - Can global power semi giants stay ahead of China competition_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the power semiconductor industry, specifically SiC (Silicon Carbide) and IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) technologies, assessing the competitive landscape against Chinese manufacturers [1][7]. SiC Market Insights - The SiC industry is currently experiencing severe oversupply, but demand is projected to grow fourfold over the next five years, with a significant improvement in supply-demand balance expected in three years [2][8]. - SiC penetration in xEV (electric vehicles) is forecasted to increase from 19% in 2025 to 49% by 2030, driven by advancements in 800V technology and cost reductions [2][14]. - The cost of SiC devices is expected to decrease by 30% over the next five years due to improved yields and declining substrate prices [2][16]. - Substrate capacity is expanding, particularly due to Chinese entrants, which is expected to lower substrate prices [2][33]. - Utilization rates for front-end capacity are projected to rise from 50% in 2024 to 76% in 2028, indicating a recovery in the market [2][42]. IGBT Market Insights - The global IGBT market is expected to grow from USD 6.8 billion in 2024 to USD 8.3 billion by 2030, reflecting a 3% CAGR [3][62]. - Despite competition from local Chinese manufacturers, overseas suppliers are expected to maintain stable revenues, particularly in high-end markets [3][73]. - The market share of global players in China is projected to decline from 62% to 35%, but they will continue to dominate the high-end segment [3][62]. Company-Specific Insights - Infineon: Recognized as a leader in SiC and IGBT technology, expected to gain market share due to its product strength and low manufacturing costs [4][48]. - Renesas: Although it has canceled its SiC plans, it benefits indirectly through its stake in Wolfspeed, which is not reflected in its current valuation [4][56]. - DISCO: Anticipated to benefit from the improving SiC outlook and potential capacity expansions in the future [4][55]. Investment Implications - Infineon, DISCO, and Renesas are rated as outperformers, with target prices set at EUR 49.00, JPY 52,800, and JPY 2,300.00 respectively [6][54]. Additional Insights - The SiC market is expected to see significant growth in applications such as xEVs (64.5% contribution) and solar energy systems, with solar demand projected to reach 124 kwpy by 2030 [9][10]. - The report highlights the importance of SiC in high-voltage applications due to its superior power efficiency and thermal conductivity [17][19]. - The competitive landscape indicates that overseas suppliers will continue to dominate the SiC market, despite the emergence of Chinese players [47][53]. Conclusion - The power semiconductor market, particularly for SiC and IGBT technologies, is poised for growth despite current oversupply challenges. Key players like Infineon and DISCO are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, while the competitive dynamics with Chinese manufacturers will continue to evolve.