IT 硬件 - 长期向好- 大幅上调我们的硬盘（HDD）价格目标与预测-IT Hardware-Stronger For Longer — Materially Raising our HDD Price Targets & Forecasts

Summary of the HDD Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Hard Disk Drive (HDD) industry, particularly the companies Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology (STX) [2][19][42]. Key Insights and Arguments - Stronger Demand for HDDs: There is a significant increase in demand for HDDs driven by cloud infrastructure spending, projected to reach $3 trillion through 2028, and the rise of AI technologies, which require substantial data storage [8][19][44]. - Supply/Demand Imbalance: The HDD market is currently undersupplied by approximately 10%, leading to price increases and extended visibility into the market until the first half of 2027 [8][11][67]. - Long-Term Growth Projections: The HDD cycle is expected to extend until at least calendar year 2028, with projected annual exabyte (EB) growth in the mid-20% range and operating margins exceeding 30% by 2026 [9][19][24]. - Earnings Growth: Both WDC and STX are projected to achieve over 35% compound EPS growth through fiscal year 2028, significantly higher than previous estimates and consensus expectations [9][19][24]. Financial Projections - Revised Price Targets: - WDC's price target raised from $99 to $171, indicating a 60% upside potential. - STX's price target increased from $168 to $265, representing a 22% upside [10][20]. - Valuation Metrics: The report suggests that both companies are trading at a significant discount compared to their growth and margin profiles, with a potential re-rating expected as the market recognizes the structural changes in the HDD industry [29][30]. Risks and Considerations - Market Risks: Potential risks include a downturn in cloud capital expenditures, competition from NAND flash technologies, and macroeconomic slowdowns that could impact HDD demand [17][41]. - Cyclical Nature of HDDs: Despite the current positive outlook, the cyclical nature of the HDD market remains a concern, with historical downturns leading to significant share price declines [41]. Additional Insights - AI Workloads: The emergence of AI workloads is creating new demand for HDDs, as these workloads are data-intensive and require substantial storage capacity [61][64]. - Cloud Capex Trends: Major cloud providers are increasing their capital expenditures, which correlates strongly with HDD demand, further supporting the bullish outlook for the industry [44][53][54]. - Pricing Power: The current supply constraints are allowing WDC and STX to raise prices, with recent reports indicating price hikes of 7-10% [68][69]. Conclusion - The HDD industry is experiencing a robust demand environment, driven by cloud and AI trends, with significant growth potential for WDC and STX. The current supply-demand dynamics are favorable, leading to upward pressure on pricing and margins, while the market remains cautious about potential cyclical risks.