PCB_CCL-2026 - 27 年 M9 需求将激增；重申对 EMC、TUC 的 “买入” 评级 M9 demand to surge in 2026_27; reiterate Buy on EMC_TUC and raise TP to NT$1,530_410

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Taiwan PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry, particularly the M9 grade CCL (Q-glass version) which is expected to see significant demand growth from 2026 to 2027 [1][12]. Key Companies - EMC (Elite Material Co., Ltd.) - Leading supplier of high-end HDI (High-Density Interconnect) and SLP (Substrate-Like PCB) materials with over 70% and 90% market share respectively [25]. - Expected to benefit from the adoption of M9 grade CCL due to its advanced technology and customer qualifications [1]. - Revised target price (TP) increased from NT$1,400 to NT$1,530 based on a 22x P/E ratio [19]. - TUC (Taiwan Union Technology Corp.) - Key supplier of high-end CCL with a market share of over 20% [28]. - Revised target price (TP) increased from NT$375 to NT$410 based on an 18.0x P/E ratio [22]. Core Insights - M9 Grade CCL Demand - Anticipated to exceed $400 per sheet, significantly higher than M7 ($100-110) and M8 ($160-180) grades [1]. - Strong demand expected for high-end PCB and CCL from Nvidia's backplane PCB launching in 2H27, with a total addressable market (TAM) of over $5 billion for Nvidia and $2 billion for CCL [10]. - Revenue and Earnings Projections - EMC's revenue estimates for 2026/27 revised up by 1-2% due to better profitability from M9 grade CCL [15]. - TUC's revenue estimates for 2026/27 revised up by 1-7% reflecting higher market share in AWS Trainium projects [17]. - Market Trends - Expected growth in high-end AI projects, with potential YoY growth accelerating from 50-60% in 2026 to over 100% in 2027 [12]. - Despite short-term challenges, any pullback in high-end PCB/CCL suppliers presents a good entry point for investors [12]. Financial Performance - EMC Financials - 2025E revenue estimate revised down by 1% due to AWS Trainium 3 delays, but 2026/27 estimates revised up by 2/3% [13][15]. - Key financial metrics for 2026E include sales of NT$123.523 billion and net income of NT$24.180 billion [16]. - TUC Financials - 2025E revenue and earnings estimates revised down by 3% and 8% respectively due to AWS Trainium 3 delays, but 2026/27 estimates revised up by 1/9% [17]. - Key financial metrics for 2026E include sales of NT$38.454 billion and net income of NT$6.317 billion [18]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include: - RCC technology potentially replacing high-end smartphone HDI designs [26]. - Rising trade tensions affecting smartphone and server shipments [26]. - Increased competition from mainland China peers [26][28]. Conclusion - The outlook for the Taiwan PCB/CCL industry is positive, driven by the adoption of advanced materials and strong demand from AI and high-speed server markets. Both EMC and TUC are positioned to benefit from these trends, with revised target prices reflecting their growth potential. However, investors should remain cautious of potential risks that could impact market dynamics.