中国五年规划中，促消费改革在财务上是否可持续Investor Presentation-Is pro-consumption reform financially sustainable in the Five-Year Plan

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the China economy and its social welfare reforms within the context of the Five-Year Plan and the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) [1][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - Incremental Fiscal Measures: Anticipation of quasi-fiscal measures in late Q3 and Q4 2025 due to domestic demand slowing more than expected [3][4]. - Infrastructure Investment: Introduction of Rmb500 billion in new policy-based financial instruments to serve as seed capital for infrastructure investment, alongside Rmb1 trillion in policy bank loans to support local governments [3][4]. - Housing Inventory Management: Emphasis on social spending rather than bailouts to address housing inventory issues, particularly in lower-tier cities facing elevated inventory levels [5][7][9]. - Social Welfare Spending: Noted that social welfare spending in China is rising amid population aging, but remains low from a global perspective [12][20]. - Pension System Disparities: Highlighted the skewed fiscal subsidies towards urban employees, with long-term funding for social insurance under pressure due to demographic changes [17][20]. Important but Overlooked Content - Urban-Rural Pension Disparity: Discussion on how to narrow the urban-rural disparity in the pension system, with a focus on increasing rural pension benefits, which would incur a modest additional fiscal burden but lead to long-term underfunding [15][20]. - Trade Performance: Noted divergent performance in trade, with US-bound shipments remaining stagnant while overall container throughput increased, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics [24][25]. - Domestic Demand Trends: Observations on the cooling of domestic demand, particularly in retail growth for autos and online home appliances, with emerging industries showing a decline in PMI [27][28]. Data Highlights - Housing Inventory: 6.1 million units of residential inventory reported, with lower-tier cities facing more pressure compared to tier 1-2 cities [6][7]. - Social Welfare Spending: Social welfare spending as a percentage of GDP has been increasing but remains low compared to other countries [12][13]. - Pension Fund Balance: The outstanding pension fund balance is projected to face significant challenges without reforms, especially with delayed retirement scenarios [18][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its social welfare reforms.