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AI高景气度延续,从三季报角度看国产算力与光模块
2025-10-09 02:00

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The AI industry outlook remains optimistic, with leading companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication benefiting from the demand growth driven by NVIDIA's B series chips, specifically a 1.6T demand increase [1][3] - The pricing for 1.6T optical modules is approximately $1,100, while silicon optical modules range from $900 to $1,000, which have been incorporated into profit models [1][2][5] - Despite minor annual declines in pricing, these changes are considered normal and will not significantly impact overall profit forecasts for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, which are expected to achieve net profit margins around 30% [1][5] Key Companies and Their Performance - ODM server manufacturers, including Hon Hai Precision, Wistron, and Inventec, have shown strong shipment performance, with Hon Hai's September revenue reaching NT$837.6 billion, a 38% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 15% year-on-year increase [4] - Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng have announced minor share reductions of 0.49% and 1.14%, respectively, which are seen as normal after stock price increases and do not alter the industry's fundamentals [2] Technological Developments - The development of CPU technology is a significant trend, with Broadcom validating a 400G port CPU operation for 1 million hours, indicating the importance of CPU technology [6] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Huagong Technology are actively researching CPU technology, positioning themselves for competitive advantages in the future [6] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - Recent market fluctuations have been influenced by short-term news, but the long-term fundamentals of the communication sector remain unchanged. Companies with strong performance support are expected to continue benefiting [7] - The acceleration of CPU industrialization is not expected to negatively impact optical module manufacturers; instead, it may provide benefits, as indicated by Zhongji Xuchuang's involvement in the CPO track [8] AI Computing Demand and Infrastructure - AI computing demand remains high, as evidenced by OpenAI's collaborations with NVIDIA and AMD, which are driving infrastructure development [9] - Domestic companies like Huawei and Alibaba are actively deploying data center super nodes to support the development of domestic chips, with Huawei's Ascend 910 chip showing improved yield rates [9] Recommendations for Companies - The domestic AI inference edge application market shows significant potential, with C-end users driving the deployment of AIC chips [10] - Zhongji Xuchuang is recommended due to its strong technical capabilities and support for various super node layouts [10] - The optical module industry is expected to grow, with strong demand driven by NVIDIA's 1.6T B series chip, leading to positive performance forecasts for companies like Xinyi Sheng and Tianfu Communication [11] ZTE Corporation's Market Position - ZTE Corporation's performance is noteworthy, with revenue expected to double this year following a recovery in Q2. The company is anticipated to enhance its profitability as it scales up production of self-controlled chips [12] - ZTE has showcased several core technologies, including CPU and switching chips, indicating its strong technical control capabilities [12] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards the AI and communication sectors remains positive, with key players positioned to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market demand [13]