如何看待本轮AI存储“超级周期”

Summary of Conference Call on AI Storage "Super Cycle" Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the storage industry, particularly focusing on the impact of AI demand on the storage market, leading to a "super cycle" in storage products [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - AI Demand as a Driving Force: AI demand is identified as the primary driver of the current storage super cycle, significantly surpassing the effects of cyclical supply-demand mismatches. The collaboration between South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix with OpenAI is expected to generate a demand for HBM wafers that exceeds current global production capacity by more than double [1][2][4]. - Shift in Production Focus: Overseas storage manufacturers are reallocating production capacity towards AI-related products, resulting in a reduction of capacity for traditional consumer embedded products, which in turn is causing price increases [1][4]. - Price Increases: The NAND Flash and DRAM market price indices have risen by approximately 5% and nearly 20% respectively in Q3 of this year. Several manufacturers have announced price hikes, with NAND Flash prices expected to increase by 5%-10% in Q4 2025 [1][5]. - Impact on A-Share Companies: A-share companies related to the storage sector are expected to benefit from the storage super cycle. Even companies with minimal AI business exposure will see price increases in niche storage products, following the trends in bulk products [1][6]. - Emerging Opportunities for Domestic Manufacturers: As international manufacturers exit the consumer market, domestic storage companies are poised to capture opportunities in the embedded storage sector. Companies like Jiangbolong and Baiwei have successfully integrated their products with leading smartphone brands such as OPPO and vivo [1][8]. - Enterprise Storage Demand Growth: The demand for enterprise-level storage is on the rise, particularly from major internet companies. It is anticipated that by 2026, the localization rate of domestic modules will significantly increase, with enterprise business revenues expected to double [3][9]. - Future Prospects for Zhao Yi Company: Zhao Yi Company, focused on storage, is benefiting from price increases in Chengdu and has unique customization capabilities. The company is expected to have significant collaborations in the near future, particularly in 3D facial recognition technology [3][10]. Additional Important Insights - Consumer Market Performance: Domestic manufacturers have not performed strongly in the consumer market, as they have shifted focus to areas like 3D parking, which has seen robust demand [7]. - Module Manufacturers' Development: Companies like Jiangbolong and Baiwei are focusing on enterprise storage, with Jiangbolong establishing strong partnerships to ensure stable wafer supply [11]. - Price Trends Forecast: The storage industry is expected to see price increases at least until Q2 2026, driven by both growth and cyclical factors, indicating a continued opportunity in the Chengdu sector [13].