亚洲主题投资-发掘亚洲新兴阿尔法机会-Asia Thematics-Theme Spotting Asia's Emerging Alpha

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Asia's Thematic Opportunities (3Q25) Industry Overview - Industry: Various sectors within the Asia Pacific region, focusing on emerging investment themes and opportunities identified by Morgan Stanley's research department. Core Themes and Investment Opportunities 1. Future of Energy - Global solar market expected to see gross margins for integrated module players turn positive by 2026-27 due to anti-involution reforms [3][3] - Japan's natural gas demand projected to grow at a CAGR of +0.8% from 2023-2031, with LNG imports from the US expected to rise by +14% [3][3] - Global new nuclear capacity anticipated to reach 587GW by 2050, with significant growth in Asia, particularly China and India [3][3] 2. Tech Diffusion - AI data centers projected to consume up to 1,068 billion liters of water annually by 2028, an 11x increase from 2024, driven by cooling and electricity generation needs [3][3] - AI NAND market expected to account for 34% of the global NAND market by 2029, adding an incremental US$29 billion to the total addressable market [3][3] 3. Multipolar World - Defense spending in Asia (South Korea, Japan, Singapore, India) projected to expand at a 12% CAGR to US$354 billion by 2029, matching China's defense budget [3][3] - Vehicles with Level 2+ all-scenario smart driving expected to reach 28% of unit sales by 2030, up from 8% in 2024, with a global ADAS/AD market size estimated at US$200 billion by 2030 [3][3] 4. Capital Market Reform - MSCI China's ROE expected to rise to 13.3% by 2030, supported by policy execution and structural reforms [3][3] - Singapore's equity market reforms could drive ROE to 14% from 12%, potentially doubling market cap by 2030 [3][3] 5. Longevity - Innovative drug sales projected to comprise 53% of China's pharmaceutical market by 2030, up from 29% in 2023, with a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2030 [3][3] Additional Insights - Water Consumption Risks: AI's water consumption poses high local risks, especially in data center hubs facing water scarcity, highlighting the need for strategic investments in water-efficient technologies [27][27] - Supply Chain Dynamics: The report discusses the ongoing reorientation of supply chains due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, and the shift towards onshoring production in the US for high-end products [56][56] - Defense Industry Outlook: The report emphasizes the expected super-cycle in Korea's defense industry, driven by rising global defense budgets and the need for modernization [64][64] Key Stock Implications - Top Picks: The report identifies several companies across various themes, including: - Tech Diffusion: KIOXIA, Samsung Electronics, and Hanwha Aerospace [12][12] - Future of Energy: Reliance Industries and Gulf Development PCL [12][12] - Longevity: Jiangsu Hengrui and Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group [12][12] This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from Morgan Stanley's thematic opportunities report, highlighting potential investment avenues and risks within the Asia Pacific region.