2025-10-09 02:00Summary of the Conference Call on Baijiu Sales During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Industry Overview - The overall sales of baijiu during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day were lower than last year, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing smaller declines due to gift-giving demand. The price range of 300-600 RMB saw the fastest decline, exceeding 30% [1][3]. - Online channels diverted some sales from offline, leading to a significant drop in offline distributor channels [1][4]. Key Points on Sales Performance - Sales Disparity: Sales performance varied significantly across different price ranges. High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye had smaller declines, while the 300-600 RMB price range saw the most significant drop [3][4]. - Regional Performance: In Jiangsu, sales were down compared to last year, with Yanghe focusing on inventory reduction and price increases. Guoyuan performed relatively well, with a decline of less than 10% [2][8]. - Inventory Levels: Jinshiyuan's inventory exceeded three months, while other brands like Guoyuan had larger terminal inventories, leading to price reductions for some products [10][6]. Brand-Specific Insights - Yanghe: Prices for core products increased, but social inventory remained high. The overall return rate was about 55%, which is a decline compared to last year [8][6]. - Guoyuan: The company aims for a return rate of over 90% by the end of November, with some products seeing a 20% increase in returns compared to last year [9]. - Wuliangye: The company implemented price control measures, allowing distributors to sell at higher prices, which helped stabilize prices around 810-815 RMB [32][33]. - Luzhou Laojiao: The brand's market performance was poor, completing only 55% of its annual target, with a focus on maintaining high prices for its high-alcohol products [34][35]. Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Shift to Online Sales: Consumers are increasingly turning to online purchases, with some stores reporting a 50% increase in online sales, although overall sales remain dominated by offline channels [16][22]. - Sales Channels: There is a notable differentiation in sales performance among smoke shops, with those maintaining good customer relationships experiencing smaller declines [5][22]. Future Outlook - Inventory Management: The current inventory reduction cycle is expected to last longer, with a risk of 10%-30% of terminal stores potentially closing if the market does not recover by the Spring Festival [27]. - Overall Market Trends: The overall sales situation is projected to decline by about 15% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with significant challenges in the mid-range and low-end segments [31][25]. Conclusion - The baijiu industry is facing significant challenges with declining sales across various price segments, increased online competition, and inventory management issues. High-end brands are somewhat insulated from these trends, but overall market performance remains weak.