美光科技：迟做总比不做好，将美光评级上调至 “优于大市”

Micron Technology Inc. Research Summary Company Overview - Company: Micron Technology Inc. (MU.O) - Industry: Semiconductors - Market Cap: $213.108 billion [5] - Current Stock Price: $187.83 [5] - Price Target: Raised from $160.00 to $220.00 [1][22] Key Insights Industry Dynamics - DRAM Pricing: Momentum in core DRAM pricing is unexpectedly strong, with potential for double-digit sequential price improvements in Q4 and Q1 [3][8] - Supply Concerns: DRAM inventories have thinned at the producer level, which is expected to support stable or improved volumes into 2026 [10] - Market Sentiment: There is widespread sentiment among industry contacts that DRAM may be tight for several quarters, which could lead to upward revisions in earnings estimates [3][8] Financial Performance - Earnings Estimates: - FY 2025 EPS: $8.29 - FY 2026e EPS: $16.14 - FY 2027e EPS: $14.05 [5][35] - P/E Ratios: - Current P/E: 23.7 - FY 2026e P/E: 11.9 - FY 2027e P/E: 13.7 [5] HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) Insights - Concerns Easing: Initial worries regarding HBM pricing and supply are easing due to a stronger DRAM backdrop [8] - Market Position: Micron is expected to maintain a low 20% market share in HBM for CY26, despite being a quarter behind competitors in volume shipments [15] - Pricing Dynamics: DDR5 pricing is positively impacting HBM price negotiations, with some buyers willing to accept lower ASP declines than previously expected [16] Valuation and Price Target Rationale - Valuation Methodology: The price target increase to $220 is based on a higher potential peak with AI as the principal driver, justifying a premium multiple [22][24] - Earnings Growth Potential: If earnings reach approximately $5 per share, a 10x multiple implies a stock price of $200, indicating significant upside potential [19][20] Risks and Considerations - Free Cash Flow Concerns: There are concerns regarding the stock's valuation on a free cash flow basis, with high gross and net capex expected to persist [21] - Market Volatility: Pricing can turn quickly, and a falter in end demand with elevated inventories could lead to swift price reductions [42] Conclusion Micron Technology Inc. is positioned for potential growth driven by strong DRAM pricing and easing concerns in the HBM segment. The raised price target reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on AI-driven demand and improve earnings. However, investors should remain cautious of free cash flow metrics and market volatility risks.