基础金属-铝：将看空价格预测推迟至 2026 年第四季度，低点为每吨 2350 美元-Base Metals Analyst_ Aluminium_ Delaying Our Bearish Price Forecast to a Low of $2,350_t in Q4 2026

Summary of Aluminium Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the aluminium market, specifically the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and global supply-demand dynamics. Key Points Price Forecast - The bearish aluminium price forecast has been delayed, with expectations for LME prices to decline from $2,700 per tonne to a low of $2,350 per tonne in Q4 2026, revised from a prior forecast of $2,100 per tonne in March 2026 [2][3][4] - Near-term support for aluminium prices is anticipated due to US Federal Reserve rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and low global visible inventory, maintaining prices around $2,700 per tonne through Q4 2025 [2][3] Market Dynamics - The aluminium market is expected to transition into a surplus, with a projected increase from a surplus of 400,000 tonnes in 2025 to between 1.5 million and 2 million tonnes in 2026/2027 [2][4][10] - Three main trends are identified as drivers for the anticipated price decline: 1. Easing physical market conditions in early 2026, with an expected inventory build-up [2][4] 2. Increased Indonesian aluminium exports, which will keep physical premiums low and offset the impact of China's production cap [2][4][31] 3. Cost deflation, leading to lower aluminium prices needed to balance the market [2][4][53] Supply and Demand - Global aluminium demand growth is forecasted to slow, with a projected increase of only 1.6% year-on-year in 2025, down from previous expectations [21][26] - Chinese aluminium demand growth has significantly slowed, with a contraction expected in Q4 2025 [20][21] - Indonesian primary aluminium production is expected to rise from 815,000 tonnes in 2025 to 1.6 million tonnes in 2026, contributing significantly to global supply [31][32] Cost Structure - Production costs for aluminium are declining, with a projected reduction of approximately $400 per tonne by Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by lower bauxite and alumina prices [53][56] - The 90th percentile of the aluminium smelter cost curve is expected to fall from $2,400 per tonne in Q1 2025 to just below $2,200 in Q2 2025 [53][56] Trade Recommendations - A trade recommendation has been issued to short the December 2026 LME aluminium contract, currently trading at $2,750 per tonne, which is 17% above the forecasted price [2][4] Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that despite the anticipated price decline, smelter closures are not expected due to the forecasted prices remaining above the 90th percentile of estimated smelter costs [57] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring physical market premiums as a more reliable indicator of market tightness than LME spreads [13] - The expected increase in Indonesian production capacity could lead to further downward pressure on prices later in the decade if prices remain elevated [41][50] This comprehensive overview captures the essential insights and forecasts regarding the aluminium market, emphasizing the interplay between supply, demand, and pricing dynamics.