汽车零部件行业-“中国效应” 进入新阶段-Auto Parts-China Effect Enters New Phase

Summary of the Conference Call on Japanese Auto Parts Industry Industry Overview - Industry: Auto Parts - Region: Japan and China - Current Phase: The environment for Japanese auto parts firms in China is entering a new phase characterized by intensified technical competition with local Chinese parts firms [1][3][5]. Key Points Structural Disruption Phases - Phase 1 (2020-2025): Japanese OEMs experience a loss of market share in China. - Phase 2 (2025-2030): Increased adoption of Chinese local auto parts technology in new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) by Japanese OEMs. - Phase 3 (2030 onward): Global competition intensifies as Chinese local parts firms expand internationally [3][37]. Sales Impact Analysis - Base Case: Average sales per Toyota car for Japanese parts makers expected to decline by 19% from fiscal year ending March 2025 (F3/25) to fiscal year ending March 2031 (F3/31). - Bear Case: Anticipates a 28% decline due to increased use of Chinese local parts across various vehicle types. - Bull Case: Predicts only a 9% drop if Japanese parts regain usage [4][12]. Competitiveness of Chinese Local Parts Firms - Japanese suppliers face heightened competition in advanced technology areas such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and electric powertrains. - Concerns about global competition as local Chinese OEMs expand into ASEAN and European markets [5][28]. Japanese Firms' Countermeasures - Japanese firms are responding to risks by collaborating with local Chinese firms, increasing transactions with Chinese OEMs, and enhancing operations in India. - Specific companies highlighted include: - Toyoda Gosei: Focusing on competitive areas like airbags. - Musashi Seimitsu: Boosting sales to local Tier 1 firms. - Koito: Expanding business with local OEMs [6][36]. Financial Performance and Forecasts - Japanese auto parts suppliers are restructuring due to declining sales in China, with significant impairments reported. - Companies like Koito and Toyoda Gosei are adjusting operations to mitigate risks, including plant consolidations and workforce reductions [56][57]. Market Share Trends - Sales for Honda and Nissan suppliers have halved, with declines of 56% for TS Tech and Unipres from F3/21 to F3/25. - Toyota suppliers have also seen declines, but performance has been relatively resilient compared to Honda and Nissan [37][49]. Future Outlook - The report maintains an "In-Line" view on the auto parts industry, balancing risks from US tariffs and delayed ASEAN demand recovery against opportunities from HEV/ICE demand resurgence and corporate value enhancement measures [12][36]. - The potential for structural disruption in the Chinese business environment is a significant theme that may impact share prices and valuations in the medium term [12][13]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of US tariffs and the evolving competitive landscape in China. - Japanese firms are advised to explore joint ventures and alliances with local firms to enhance competitiveness and mitigate risks associated with local market dynamics [29][58].