电子元件行业- 新加坡与中国香港投资者访问-Electronic Components-Investor Visits in Singapore and Hong Kong

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Electronic Components in Japan - Investor Engagement: 29 individual meetings and one group meeting held with institutional investors in Singapore and Hong Kong from September 29 to October 3, focusing on stock selection and trends from July to September, as well as medium-term earnings projections for fiscal year ending March 2027 [1][2] Core Insights - Investment Themes: There is a growing emphasis on selecting stocks related to AI, data centers, and other specific themes rather than focusing solely on earnings. Strong interest was noted in several companies: - Ibiden: High market share in NVIDIA's GPU ABF package substrates - Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden: Increasing sales in the AI/data center segment within their main MLCC businesses - TDK: Ongoing expansion in rechargeable battery earnings and improvements in HDD-related business - Meiko Electronics: Geopolitical advantage due to primary production site in Vietnam [3] Company-Specific Highlights Ibiden - Sales Growth: Reported ¥75.1 billion in sales from NVIDIA in fiscal year 2025, a 138% year-over-year increase. Expected sales to rise to ¥130.0 billion in fiscal year 2026 and ¥192.7 billion in fiscal year 2027. - New Product Launch: Anticipated shipments of Rubin ABF package substrates starting March 2026, expected to significantly boost earnings. - Operational Performance: Projected operating profit of ¥12.0 billion for Q2 fiscal year 2026, with a total of ¥58.7 billion for fiscal year 2026 [4][8] Murata Manufacturing - Market Conditions: Not expecting tight supply-demand conditions for MLCCs in the near future. Global MLCC shipment value is projected to increase from $12.64 billion in 2023 to $14.84 billion in 2025 (+11.6% YoY). - Operational Performance: Forecasting operating profit of ¥269.9 billion for fiscal year 2026, with a significant impact from currency fluctuations [9][10] TDK - Earnings Outlook: Expected operating profit of ¥266.3 billion for fiscal year 2026, marking a sixth consecutive year of all-time high profits. - Product Focus: Mobile-device rechargeable batteries and HDD-related business are key profit drivers. Anticipated improvements in HDD-related business profitability [10][11] Meiko Electronics - Long-term Growth: Projected operating profit of ¥24.1 billion for fiscal year 2026, driven by strong sales to smartphone and gaming segments. - Strategic Initiatives: Forming a joint venture with Taiwan-based ACCL to enhance production capabilities for AI servers [13][21] Additional Insights - MLCC Market Dynamics: MLCCs are critical components across various electronic devices, with AI server-related business expected to contribute approximately 7% of MLCC shipment value in 2025. - Currency Impact: A single yen change against the USD is estimated to impact operating profit by approximately ¥4.5 billion for Murata and ¥900 million for Taiyo Yuden [9][14] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: High-value-added ABF package products may drive earnings beyond expectations for Ibiden. For TDK, potential growth in HDD heads earnings is not factored into the base case. - Downside Risks: Increased competition from Taiwanese peers in the automotive PCB market and potential downturns in auto production could negatively impact Meiko Electronics [19][24][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the performance and outlook of major players in the electronic components industry in Japan.