中国每周展望 - 交易周缩短，市场上涨 2 - 4%；四中全会将于 10 月 20 - 23 日召开；8 月工业利润激增；9 月 PMI 喜忧参半

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Market Performance: Markets gained 2-4% in a shortened trading week, with MXCN rallying 4.0%, led by Retailing (+8.9%) and Materials (+8.1%) [1][1][1] - Industrial Profits: Industrial profits surged in August, increasing by 18.8%, primarily driven by upstream industries which saw a growth of 37.5% [1][1][1] - PMI Data: Mixed Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) results were reported for September, with manufacturing PMIs increasing while non-manufacturing and services PMIs edged down [1][1][1] Economic Policies and Support - Liquidity Support: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced Rmb500 billion worth of liquidity support to boost investment [1][1][1] - Monetary Policy: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained an easing bias during its Q3 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting [1][1][1] - Upcoming Events: The 4th Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPCCC) is scheduled for October 20-23 to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][1][1] Regulatory Environment - US Restrictions: The US Department of Commerce expanded its Entity List/MEU List restrictions to include affiliates of listed entities with at least 50% ownership [1][1][1] - Credit Rating Warning: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a warning to S&P's local subsidiary, urging improvements in quality controls on credit ratings [1][1][1] Earnings and Valuations - Forward P/E Ratios: MXCN and CSI300 have 12-month forward P/E ratios of 13.9x and 14.8x, respectively [9][9][9] - EPS Growth Forecasts: The I/B/E/S consensus for 2025/26 EPS growth is projected at 2%/16% for MXCN and 14%/13% for CSI300 [9][9][9] - Sector Revisions: Health Care and Communication Services sectors were revised up the most for both onshore and offshore markets [9][9][9] Investment Flows - Southbound Flows: Year-to-date southbound investment flows reached US$150 billion [4][4][4] - Hedge Fund Activity: Chinese equities experienced net selling flows in September, reversing approximately 50% of the inflows observed in August [24][24][24] - Allocation Trends: Despite selling, allocations to China increased slightly to 6.5%, which is in the 69th percentile of the past five years [26][26][26] Sector Performance - Sector Outperformance: Materials and Growth sectors outperformed, while Real Estate and Beta sectors lagged [8][8][8] - Earnings Preview: The earnings growth for the aggregate universe/A-shares is expected to outpace the MSCI index in Q3 [17][17][17] Macro Economic Indicators - GDP Forecasts: Goldman Sachs forecasts China's real GDP growth at 5.0% for 2024, 4.8% for 2025, and 4.2% for 2026 [46][46][46] - Industrial Production: Industrial production is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2024 [46][46][46] - CPI and PPI Trends: CPI is expected to remain low at 0.2% in 2024, while PPI is projected to decline further [46][46][46] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for the Chinese market with significant industrial profit growth and supportive government policies. However, mixed PMI data and external regulatory pressures from the US present potential risks. Investors are advised to consider these factors when making investment decisions.