美联储声明解读：降息重启，分歧仍存-US Economics-What the Fed Said – Differences remain as rate cuts resume

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy, particularly focusing on interest rate adjustments and their implications for the economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Divergent Views Among Fed Officials: There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the economic outlook and the appropriate monetary policy, with some advocating for significant rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation risks [1][5][6]. 2. Rate Cut Proposals: A group of 10 Fed officials supports cutting rates by 75 basis points or more, aligning with Chair Powell's view on employment risks. Conversely, 9 officials favor smaller cuts, citing inflation concerns [1][5]. 3. Powell's Evolving Stance: Fed Chair Powell's perspective has shifted towards a more dovish approach, recognizing downside risks to employment and suggesting that further rate cuts are necessary to achieve a neutral policy stance [5][6]. 4. Miran's Dovish Position: Stephen Miran argues for a more aggressive rate cut of 150 basis points, suggesting that current policy rates are overly restrictive and should be lowered to around the mid-2 percent range [2][7]. 5. Targeting Repo Rates: There is a discussion about potentially shifting the Fed's target from the effective federal funds rate to a more representative repo rate, with no immediate urgency for this change [3][23][24]. 6. Factors Influencing Neutral Rate: Miran identifies several factors that could lower the neutral interest rate (r*), including slower population growth, reduced deficits due to new tax policies, and increased credit supply from loan guarantees [8][10]. 7. Output Gap and Inflation: Miran's analysis suggests that deregulation and tax policy changes could widen the output gap, while slower shelter inflation could lead to a significant reduction in overall inflation rates [11][12]. Additional Important Points 1. Cautious Fed Officials: Some Fed officials, including Barkin and Goolsbee, express caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting the need for more data on inflation trends before making decisions [15][18][21]. 2. Market Expectations: The market is pricing in a series of rate cuts, with expectations for the policy range to decrease over the next year [27][30]. 3. Long-Term Considerations: The potential transition to targeting repo rates is expected to take time, with discussions likely extending over a year before any changes are implemented [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, focusing on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategies.