特斯拉 - 三季度交付量强劲超预期

Summary of Tesla Inc Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Tesla Inc - Industry: Autos & Shared Mobility - Market Cap: $1,616,840 million - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: $410.00 - Current Stock Price (as of Oct 1, 2025): $459.46 - 52-Week Range: $488.54 - $212.11 [5][69] Key Points from the Conference Call 1. Delivery Performance - 3Q Deliveries: 497,100 units, exceeding sell-side consensus of 443,000 by 12% and aligning with buy-side expectations of 450,000 to 500,000 [1][4][7] - Year-over-Year Growth: This marks the first year-over-year increase in deliveries for Tesla in 2025 [1][4] - Production Figures: Production was slightly below expectations at 447,500 units compared to a consensus of 468,500 units, representing a 4% miss [7] 2. Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - ESS Deployments: Achieved 12.5 GWh, surpassing consensus expectations of 10.94 GWh and Morgan Stanley's estimate of 9.66 GWh by 14% [7] 3. Market Dynamics - Demand Pull-Forward: The increase in deliveries is likely attributed to a demand pull-forward ahead of the expiry of EV consumer tax credits on September 30, 2025 [1][4] Financial Projections Price Target Methodology - Bull Case: Total price target of $800, with key components including: - Tesla Auto (Core): $130 for 7 million units by 2030 at an 18% EBITDA margin - Tesla Energy: $85 with a 20-year revenue CAGR of 28% and a 26% gross margin by 2030 - Tesla Mobility/Ride-sharing: $263 for a 12 million fleet by 2040 at a 45% EBITDA margin [2] - Base Case: Total price target of $410, with components including: - Tesla Auto (Core): $76 for 4.6 million units by 2030 at a 16.2% EBITDA margin - Tesla Energy: $68 with a 20-year revenue CAGR of 25.6% and a 26.5% gross margin by 2030 - Tesla Mobility/Ride-sharing: $90 for a 7.5 million fleet by 2040 at a 29% EBITDA margin [2][9] - Bear Case: Total price target of $200, with components including: - Tesla Auto (Core): $53 for 4 million units by 2030 at a 12% EBITDA margin - Tesla Energy: $30 with a 20-year revenue CAGR of 12% and a 20% gross margin by 2030 [2][9] Risks and Considerations - Upside Risks: Include increased FSD attach rates, successful new model introductions (Cybertruck, multivan, Semi), and geographic penetration [12] - Downside Risks: Include competition from legacy OEMs and Chinese players, execution risks related to factory ramps, and potential dilution [12] Conclusion Tesla Inc has demonstrated strong delivery performance in 3Q 2025, exceeding expectations and marking a significant year-over-year increase. The company's future growth potential is supported by ambitious projections across its core automotive, energy, and mobility segments, although it faces various risks that could impact its performance.