大中华半导体 - 云计算半导体需求到 2026 年全球仍将强劲-Greater China Semiconductors-Cloud Semis Demand Remains Strong Globally into 2026

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Semiconductors, specifically focusing on cloud semiconductors - Key Players: Aspeed, OpenAI, Alibaba, NVIDIA, Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google Core Insights 1. Strong Demand for AI: The semiconductor sector is experiencing robust demand for AI technologies, highlighted by a strategic partnership between OpenAI and NVIDIA to deploy at least 10GW of NVIDIA systems for AI infrastructure, equivalent to millions of GPUs, with the first 1GW expected in 2H26 [2][5] 2. Cloud Demand: Cloud demand remains strong, with Alibaba reporting a 10x increase in global data center power usage by 2032 compared to 2022, and token usage doubling every 2-3 months [2][5] 3. Aspeed's Revenue Guidance: Aspeed's 4Q25 revenue guidance is set at NT$2-2.1 billion, aligning with estimates, and gross margin guidance is between 66.5-67.5%, indicating a better product mix [3][9] 4. Substrate Shortage: A substrate shortage is expected to constrain Aspeed's growth in 1H26, but supply constraints are anticipated to ease in 2H26 as Nitto Boseki expands capacity [4][9] 5. Positive Outlook for Aspeed: Despite current revenue caps due to supply issues, Aspeed is well-positioned for growth in 2026, with potential market share expansion in new product lines [5][39] Financial Projections 1. Earnings Estimates: Aspeed's earnings estimates for 2025-2027 have been fine-tuned, with a projected revenue increase of 4%, 6%, and 8% respectively, driven by higher shipment forecasts [36][39] 2. Price Target: The price target for Aspeed remains unchanged at NT$6,100, reflecting a positive outlook based on revised earnings estimates [5][39] 3. Gross Margin Trends: Gross margins are expected to remain stable, with a forecast of 67.2% in 2025, up from 64% in 2024 [48][39] Additional Insights 1. Cloud Capex Growth: The top 11 cloud providers are expected to allocate $445 billion to capital expenditures in 2025, indicating a significant increase from previous estimates [27][28] 2. Market Dynamics: The semiconductor market is experiencing a correlation between cloud capex and global semiconductor revenue, with a noted increase in capital intensity expected to exceed 20% of revenue in 2026 [28][35] 3. Risks and Opportunities: Potential risks include intensified competition and policy tightening in China, while opportunities lie in expanding share in the BMC market and accelerating cloud spending from customers [60] Conclusion The semiconductor industry, particularly in the cloud segment, is poised for growth driven by AI demand and cloud infrastructure investments. Aspeed is strategically positioned to capitalize on these trends despite current supply constraints, with a positive outlook for future earnings and market share expansion.