中国房地产 - 开发商 9 月销售超预期，但四季度仍具挑战-China Property-Developers' September Sales Beat, but 4Q Stays Challenging

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically the performance of major property developers in September 2025 and expectations for the fourth quarter [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Sales Performance in September: - Property sales of 30 major developers showed a milder-than-expected decline of -10% year-on-year (y-y) in September, compared to a -18% decline in August [1][2]. - The top 50 developers recorded a -3% y-y change, while the top 100 developers saw a +3% y-y increase, indicating a narrowing of year-to-date sales decline to -13% for both groups [2]. 2. Performance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): - SOEs outperformed with positive y-y sales in September, with notable increases from Jinmao (+40%), C&D (+37%), and CMSK (+16%) [3]. - In contrast, some private-owned enterprises (POEs) like Agile, CIFI, and Zhongnan experienced declines exceeding 50% y-y [3]. 3. Challenges Ahead: - The outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with expectations of deeper sales declines due to high inventory levels and cautious buyer sentiment [4]. - The anticipated nationwide housing policy changes are expected to be muted, which may further impact sales negatively [4]. 4. Investment Strategy: - The call emphasized a defensive and selective investment approach. The better-than-expected September sales may reduce the urgency for new housing policies, presenting potential entry points for quality SOEs [5]. - Caution was advised regarding POEs due to their older and depleting landbanks, which could hinder sales and earnings recovery [5]. Additional Important Insights - Market Dynamics: The sales performance is influenced by increased project launches, particularly in tier 1 cities, amid policy easing [2]. - Long-term Consolidators: Companies like CR Land and C&D are highlighted as long-term consolidators with strong growth potential [9]. - Tactical Ideas: Positive tactical investment ideas include COLI, Jinmao, and Yuexiu, which have rich saleable resources in top-tier cities [9]. - Consumption Beneficiary: CR Mixc is noted for its upbeat mall same-store sales growth (SSSG) and improving cash collection, enhancing dividend visibility [9]. Conclusion - The China Property market is experiencing a complex landscape with mixed performance among developers. While SOEs show resilience, the overall market faces significant challenges ahead, necessitating a cautious investment approach focused on quality and potential recovery opportunities.