亚洲新兴市场股票策略 - 大幅估值重估或难持续-Asia EM Equity Strategy-Major valuation re-rating may not be sustainable

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia/EM (Emerging Markets) equity strategy, highlighting the current market conditions and future outlook for the region [2][4]. Core Insights - The recent rally in Asia/EM markets is primarily attributed to multiple expansions rather than earnings growth, raising concerns about sustainability [2][10]. - For the rally to continue into 2026, a significant reacceleration in global GDP growth and earnings estimates is necessary [4][14]. - Current downside risks for major Asia/EM indices range from 6% to 13%, while upside potential is limited to 1% to 8% [7][8]. - The 12-month forward P/E multiples have increased by 3.0 to 3.6 points since early April, returning to levels last seen in 2021, which are 1.0 to 1.8 standard deviations above the 10-year averages [11][12]. Earnings and Economic Outlook - Earnings estimate revisions have been flat to down since April, contrasting with the positive revisions seen in the US market [7][14]. - The economic team expresses concerns about growth risks, particularly in trade-dependent economies, with moderate deceleration expected in forward EPS for major markets [14][15]. - The report indicates resilience in domestic demand sectors like Financials and Consumer, while global cyclicals such as Energy and Materials are expected to face weakness [15]. Market Sentiment and Flows - There is a noted gap of approximately 10% between current index levels and base case targets, with markets nearing bull case targets [8][34]. - Sentiment indicators show complacency but not extreme euphoria, with inflows into EM equities increasing from 2 out of 10 weeks at the market trough in April to 8 out of 10 weeks recently [34][36]. Sector Performance - Emerging Markets (EM) equities are characterized as low-quality cyclicals, with historical performance showing sudden bursts of investor interest followed by disappointment [18]. - The report suggests a preference for Financials and domestic Consumer plays over traditional cyclicals like Energy and Materials, which are currently underweighted [25][30]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the need for cautious optimism regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, highlighting the importance of economic growth and earnings recovery for future performance [2][4][18].