大摩：市场思考2026年美国通胀会放缓吗

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding inflation trends and the impact of tariffs and immigration policies on economic performance [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Inflation Projections: The core PCE inflation rate is approximately 2.9%, expected to rise to around 3% by year-end. The key question remains whether inflation in 2026 will be driven by tariffs or if it will be a temporary factor [2][3]. - Impact of Tariffs: The economy has not fully absorbed the effects of tariffs, and additional tariffs announced by the President are included in baseline forecasts. Companies are still determining how much of these costs can be passed on to consumers [2][5]. - Immigration Policy Effects: Immigration restrictions are contributing to inflation, particularly in the service sector. The labor supply from immigrants, who tend to work in lower-income households, is significant for the economy. Service sector inflation has been rising, while goods inflation remains weaker [3][4]. - Economic Growth Trends: The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with a projected growth rate of about 1.8% for the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024. However, a strong rebound is anticipated in the third quarter, with growth projected at around 3% [4][5]. - Labor Market Dynamics: Non-labor costs are rising, and companies are absorbing some of these costs without significantly raising prices. This situation may lead to future inflation or a slowdown in consumer spending [5][6]. - Federal Reserve Strategy: The Federal Reserve is recalibrating its strategy, shifting focus from solely inflation risks to balancing inflation with labor market risks. Two additional rate cuts are anticipated by year-end to adapt to changing economic conditions [6][7]. - Political Pressure on Fed: Despite potential political pressures, the Fed's independence is expected to remain intact. However, uncertainties regarding policy direction post-2026, when Chairman Powell's term ends, pose risks for investors [8]. Other Important Considerations - India's Economic Outlook: India is facing challenges due to slowed domestic demand and trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. However, government stimulus measures are expected to boost growth starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, maintaining a positive outlook for India's economic recovery [8].