台积电-催化剂驱动的思路

Summary of TSMC Analyst Meeting Insights Company Overview - Company: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - Ticker: 2330.TW - Market Cap: NT$37,206,613 million - Current Share Price: NT$1,435.00 (as of October 7, 2025) - Price Target: NT$1,588.00 - Industry: Semiconductors Key Points and Arguments Revenue Guidance and Demand - TSMC is expected to revise its 2025 revenue growth guidance from 30% to a range of 32-34% year-over-year due to strong demand in AI and semiconductors [2][4][5] - The company may narrow its capital expenditure guidance to approximately US$40 billion, reflecting high fab utilization in Q4 2025 [2][6] - TSMC anticipates flat revenue in USD for Q4 2025, with gross margins projected between 57% and 59% [2][6] Scenarios for Upcoming Analyst Meeting - Scenario 1: Revenue growth guidance exceeds 35% year-over-year, with Q4 revenue growth of 3-5% and margins near 60%. This scenario has a 15% probability [3][5] - Scenario 2: Revenue growth guidance is revised to 32-34% year-over-year, with flat Q4 revenue and margins around 58%. This is the base case with a 60% probability [4][5] - Scenario 3: Revenue growth guidance remains at 30% year-over-year, with a decline in Q4 revenue and margins slightly above 55%. This scenario has a 25% probability [3][5] Stock Price Implications - Scenario 1: Expected stock price increase of 3-5% [4] - Scenario 2: Expected stock price increase of 0-2% [4] - Scenario 3: Expected stock price decrease of 0-5% [4] AI Demand and Pricing - TSMC indicates that AI demand is robust and may exceed current supply, with ongoing negotiations for wafer prices in 2026 [3][4] - The company suggests that demand for leading-edge technologies remains strong, which could support pricing power [12] Additional Important Insights - TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the upcoming fiscal years are NT$61.60 for 2025 and NT$74.85 for 2026, with a projected P/E ratio of 23.3 for 2025 [7] - The semiconductor industry is viewed as attractive, with TSMC being a top pick in the Greater China Technology Semiconductors sector [7] - Risks include potential inventory corrections and weakening demand for non-AI technologies, which could impact revenue growth [12] Conclusion - TSMC is positioned for potential revenue growth driven by strong AI demand, with upcoming guidance revisions likely to influence stock performance. The market is closely watching the analyst meeting on October 16, 2025, for further insights into revenue expectations and pricing strategies.