2025-10-09 02:39Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Industry: AI Supply Chain, specifically focusing on semiconductor manufacturing and AI ASICs - Key Companies: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), NVIDIA, Meta, Google, AWS, Alchip, MediaTek, GUC (Global Unichip Corp) Core Insights and Arguments 1. CoWoS Capacity and Demand: - TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity plan is currently under-supplying based on anticipated demand from key customers, particularly NVIDIA [2][10] - NVIDIA's RTX Pro 6000 forecast remains strong, indicating robust inference demand in China [1][2] - TSMC's current offering of 590k CoWoS-L wafers in 2026 is projected to be 20% below NVIDIA's demand [2] 2. NVIDIA's AI ASIC Developments: - The Rubin CPX GPU is expected to adopt TSMC's CoWoS-S packaging, with a performance of 30 PFLOPS and 128GB of GDDR7 memory [3][39] - NVIDIA's AI capacity costs are estimated at $50-60 billion per GW, with $35-40 billion allocated to NVIDIA, suggesting potential revenues of $350-400 billion starting in 2H26 [2][11] 3. AI ASIC Volume Forecast: - AI ASIC volumes could reach approximately 5.7 million units in 2026 and 8 million units in 2027, with Google and AWS being the primary players [47] - MediaTek's chances of winning the Meta MTIA project are diminishing due to strong competition from Broadcom and Marvell [57][58] 4. Market Dynamics and Competitor Analysis: - GUC is expected to benefit from increased demand for Google Axion CPUs, potentially contributing around $250 million to its revenue in 2026 [59] - Alchip is projected to generate approximately $1.8 billion in revenue from Trainium3 in 2026, despite a back-loaded shipment schedule [56] 5. Capacity Expansion and Future Projections: - TSMC's clean room space is ready for expansion to 110-120k if demand is confirmed, with a revised CoWoS capacity assumption of 100kwpm by 2026 [2][12] - The overall demand for CoWoS is expected to grow significantly, with NVIDIA's demand forecasted to increase by 61% in 2026 [20] Additional Important Insights - NVIDIA's Strategic Positioning: - NVIDIA's Rubin architecture is designed to optimize inference performance, potentially delivering a 30x to 50x return on investment [39] - The demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU, including RTX Pro 6000, is strong among Chinese customers, with expected sales of 1.5 million to 2 million units in 2H25 [14] - Competitive Landscape: - SMIC is aggressively expanding its 7nm node capacity to meet domestic GPU and AI ASIC demand in China [14] - The competition in the AI ASIC market is intensifying, with various players vying for market share and technological advancements [57][58] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the AI supply chain, particularly focusing on TSMC and NVIDIA's roles within the semiconductor industry.