金属与矿业-弱势美元 + 供应中断 = 未来价格走高-Americas Metals & Mining-Weak Dollar + Supply Disruptions = Elevated Pricing Ahead

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Metals & Mining industry, particularly the copper sector in North America - A weakening dollar and supply disruptions at major copper producers are leading to elevated metal prices [1][2] Key Company Insights Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) - SCCO is upgraded to Equal-Weight (EW) from Underweight (UW) due to supply disruptions limiting investment avenues [2][37] - Price target updated to $132/share, reflecting a premium multiple of 1.75x standard deviations above the 5-year average [2][37] - Expected 2026 copper price forecast is $4.83/lb, up from a year-to-date average of $4.34/lb [2][38] - Anticipated dividend upside due to controlling shareholder's cash needs for potential M&A, with a forecasted dividend yield of 3% [50][52] - EBITDA estimates for 2026 are revised to $8.038 billion, up from $6.547 billion [54] Peñoles (PEOLES) - Peñoles is also upgraded to Equal-Weight (EW) as it is trading at a discount to its Sum-of-the-Parts (SoP) valuation [3][60] - Current stock performance is strong, with a 232% increase year-to-date in USD [3] - Price target set at M$770, reflecting a 4.1x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026, below its 5-year average of 4.9x [60][68] Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) - FCX maintains an Overweight (OW) rating with a price target of $46 [71] - The stock is expected to benefit from increased copper rod pricing in North America and a positive outlook for gold as operations at Grasberg restart [71][72] Market Dynamics - Copper supply disruptions from major players like Ivanhoe, Codelco, and Freeport are tightening the market into 2026 [2][38] - The copper market is projected to face a significant deficit, with supply disruptions accounting for 4.7% of total supply year-to-date [39][42] - The commodities team is bullish on copper, predicting macro and micro support leading to a large deficit in 2026 [5][25] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include a deceleration in global growth due to US tariffs, which could negatively impact commodity prices [13] - The degree of China's participation in the market recovery post-Golden Week remains uncertain [13] Financial Estimates and Valuations - Updated estimates reflect new commodity price forecasts and FX assumptions across mining coverage [4][54] - SCCO is trading at 24.0x P/E for 2026, above its 5-year average of 19.9x [55] - Peñoles is trading at 10.3x P/E for 2026, below its 5-year average of 15.0x [66] Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive outlook for copper prices driven by supply disruptions and a weakening dollar, with specific upgrades for Southern Copper and Peñoles reflecting their current market positions and future potential.