9月及国庆期间楼市销售情况解读

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate market in China, focusing on the performance of top real estate companies during September and the National Day holiday period in 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - Sales growth for the top 100 real estate companies has rebounded, but overall performance remains at historical lows. Leading companies like Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources have sufficient inventory in core cities, achieving a growth rate of 2.6%. Some lower-ranked companies, such as Bangtai, reported significant growth of 42% [1][2]. - In September, the total operating amount for the top 100 real estate companies was approximately 250 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 22.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2]. Market Conditions During National Day - The real estate market during the National Day holiday was less favorable compared to the previous year, attributed to weakened policy measures and a high base effect from last year. The average opening sales rate in monitored cities was 38%, down 4 percentage points month-on-month but up about 10 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - Transaction volumes in 45 monitored cities saw a significant decline, with a month-on-month drop of 81% and a year-on-year drop of 20% during the holiday [3][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In September, the supply of new properties in 30 monitored cities reached its second-highest level of the year, with a total supply exceeding 10 million square meters, marking a 55% increase month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 16% [4][6]. - The supply structure is primarily driven by improvement-oriented demand, accounting for about 50%, while first-time homebuyer demand constitutes 20% [4][6]. Future Market Trends - The cumulative operating amount for the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed. The market is gradually recovering, with a structural rebound expected in the second half of the year [5][6]. - The overall supply remains low, with major cities' supply structure favoring improvement-oriented demand, a trend expected to continue [5][7]. City-Specific Insights - In first-tier cities, transaction volumes are steadily increasing, with a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 1% in September. The cumulative year-on-year increase for the first three quarters is 4% [8]. - Second and third-tier cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou maintained high market activity, with significant month-on-month increases in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities lagged due to limited policy support and land market concentration in first and second-tier cities [9][21]. Land Market Performance - The land market has cooled down, but the pace of high-quality land sales has accelerated, with land transaction area and value increasing by 50% and 86% month-on-month, respectively [14][27]. - The focus remains on high-quality plots in core cities, with a cautious investment attitude prevailing in the overall market [27]. Other Important Insights - The new housing market continues to recover, supported by marketing and supply, while the second-hand housing market shows a contrasting trend with significant declines in transactions [11][12]. - The pricing dynamics indicate that second-hand housing prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels, while new housing prices in core areas remain relatively stable [26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China.