克而瑞 金九收官&国庆假期，楼市表现如何？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate market in China, focusing on the performance of key cities during the National Day holiday in 2025 and the overall trends in the housing market [1][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance During National Day: The real estate market in key cities was generally sluggish during the National Day holiday, with new home subscription areas in 22 key cities dropping by 33% year-on-year and 38% month-on-month [4][8]. - Sales Data: The total transaction area of commercial housing nationwide during the National Day holiday was 654,900 square meters, representing a significant month-on-month decline of 81% and a year-on-year decrease of 20% [8]. - New Home Subscription Trends: In September 2025, the subscription amount for new homes in Tianjin fell by 46% year-on-year, marking a three-year low, while Changsha saw a nearly 40% decline in subscription area [1][7]. - Top 100 Real Estate Companies: The operational amount for the top 100 real estate companies in September was 252.8 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4%, marking the first positive growth of the year [9][10]. - Supply and Demand Imbalance: The market faces significant challenges, including an imbalance between supply and demand, intense price competition, and a lack of new stimulating policies [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - Regional Variations: Some cities like Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Xian showed notable performance during the holiday, with Guangzhou's new home subscription volume increasing by 232% compared to the week before the holiday [6][7]. - Second-hand Housing Market: The second-hand housing market in 30 key cities saw a month-on-month decline of 1% in September, although it experienced a year-on-year growth of 10% [20]. - Future Market Expectations: The overall transaction volume is expected to remain low in October, with no new stimulating measures anticipated, leading to a continued downward trend in most regions [12][23]. - Land Investment Trends: Major cities accounted for nearly 40% of the total land investment in 2025, with the top ten real estate companies holding over 70% of new land investments [13][14]. Conclusion - The real estate market in China is currently facing a challenging environment characterized by declining sales, regional disparities, and a lack of confidence among consumers. The outlook for the coming months suggests continued low activity levels, with potential for further declines in transaction volumes across various segments of the market [12][23].