扩产周期与自主可控共振，半导体设备成为核心资产

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor equipment industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly in the storage and advanced logic sectors, with a major expansion anticipated in 2026 [1][2] - International sanctions, particularly from the U.S. against Chinese semiconductor equipment, and China's countermeasures on rare earth elements, indicate an improvement in China's self-sufficiency and an increasing domestic production rate [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Growth Projections: - Storage manufacturers are expected to expand production by 50,000 wafers each in 2026, with total capital expenditure elasticity projected at over 60%, potentially reaching around 70% when including factors like Changxin HBM expansion [1][6] - Advanced logic is expected to grow by 25% in 2026 [1][6] - Order Growth: - Companies are seeing substantial order growth: - Zhongwei's orders are expected to grow by at least 45% in 2026 [6] - Tuojing is expected to maintain a growth rate of 40-50% [6] - Huachuang anticipates orders reaching 50 billion, with a significant portion from advanced logic [6] - Huajingke's order growth is projected at around 50% [6] - Jinyi Equipment's order growth is expected to be about 30% [6] Government Initiatives - Local governments, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing, are actively promoting advanced logic node capacity, which is expected to increase demand for related equipment and strengthen the industry's fundamentals [5] Market Valuation and Future Outlook - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $40 billion by 2030, with leading companies like Huachuang, Zhongwei, and Tuojing having significant future growth potential [3][7] - Current valuation of semiconductor front-end equipment is around 17 billion, with an estimated 20% growth potential remaining [8] - The advanced packaging sector is expected to see significant development in 2026, driven by projects like Changxin's HBM expansion [9] Investment Recommendations - The three leading companies (Huachuang, Zhongwei, Tuojing) are prioritized for investment based on their growth potential and market position [3][7] - Jinyi Equipment is also recommended with a market value target of 20 billion [3][7] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment for the semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with expectations of substantial improvements in both storage and advanced logic chip sectors over the next year [10]