ASML - 人工智能前景强劲，上调晶圆厂设备（WFE）预测，客户数据点向好；重申 “买入” 评级

Summary of ASML Holding (ASML.AS) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: ASML Holding (ASML.AS) - Market Cap: €330.8 billion / $384.4 billion - Industry: European Semiconductors Key Points Industry Dynamics - AI Demand: The demand for AI infrastructure is significantly increasing, positively impacting leading-edge Logic/Memory semiconductor capital equipment [2][6] - Semicap Tracker: Positive inflection noted in four out of six categories tracked in the European semicap sector, indicating a robust demand environment [5][9] - WFE Growth: The US semiconductors team has revised growth expectations for Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) in 2025/2026 to 9% year-over-year growth, up from previous estimates of 5% and 2% [6][10] Company Performance - Order Cadence: ASML requires an order intake of slightly over €2 billion per quarter to meet the current consensus estimate for 2026 systems revenue, which is considered undemanding compared to historical averages [10][11] - Stock Performance: ASML shares have increased by approximately 30% in the last month but still lag behind its semicap peers in price performance over the past year [11][12] - Valuation: ASML currently trades at a 12-month forward P/E multiple of 35x, which is a 60% premium to the broader EU Tech sector, indicating potential for further valuation re-rating [14][16] Customer and Market Insights - Key Contracts: OpenAI signed a $300 billion contract with Oracle for computing capacity, and CoreWeave has a multi-year agreement with Meta for AI infrastructure [2][4] - Memory Supply Needs: OpenAI requires 900,000 DRAM wafers monthly, to be supplied by Samsung and SK Hynix, highlighting the strong demand for memory chips [2][4] Risks and Challenges - Mature Node Demand: Limited visibility around recovery in mature node demand, with geopolitical uncertainties potentially impacting ASML's operations, particularly in China [8][19] - Regulatory Impact: AMAT expects a $600 million headwind to FY26 revenue due to US export restrictions, which could affect the semiconductor equipment sector [8][19] Future Outlook - Revenue Projections: ASML's revenue estimates for 2026/27 are projected to be 3%/6% above consensus, driven by favorable positioning in the leading-edge semis supply chain and AI demand [11][19] - Long-term Growth: Forecasts suggest a potential re-acceleration to double-digit growth in 2027 as EUV layer growth resumes [9][19] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: Goldman Sachs reiterates a "Buy" rating for ASML with a 12-month price target of €935, indicating an upside of 9.8% from the current price of €851.80 [20][19]