中国思考- 四中全会及未来展望：预期几何-China Musings-4th Plenum and Beyond What to Expect

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session (4th Plenum) of the Chinese Communist Party, scheduled for October 20-23, 2025, which will set the priorities for the next Five-Year Plan (FYP) [3][4] Core Insights and Arguments 1. 4th Plenum Documents: The 4th Plenum will release two key documents: a high-level Communiqué outlining overarching priorities and a detailed "Central Government Suggestions for Drafting the FYP" [3][4] 2. Key Tasks for 2026-2030: The Communiqué will emphasize economic growth, structural reform, social governance, environmental sustainability, and improvements in people's livelihoods, with a focus on technological self-sufficiency and innovation [4][7] 3. Incremental Reflation: The anticipated economic policies for 2026 suggest a gradual approach to reflation, with a GDP growth target of around 5% to balance short-term and long-term objectives [7][12] 4. Social Welfare Reform: There is an expectation for gradual social welfare reform, which may receive endorsement in the upcoming documents, although major surprises are not anticipated [4][7] 5. Economic Transition: Beijing is committed to deepening the economic transition focused on technology and innovation, aiming for supply chain and energy self-sufficiency [9][10] Additional Important Content 1. Consumer Spending Trends: The "Super Golden Week" travel data indicated a year-on-year growth of 1.6% in person-trips, but a 13% contraction in spending per person per day, suggesting lukewarm demand [14][16] 2. Retail Sector Performance: Major retail and catering enterprises reported a revenue growth of 2.7% year-on-year, which is lower than the previous month's growth [15] 3. Hotel Industry Insights: Average hotel room prices showed a low-single-digit increase despite soft demand, indicating lower price elasticity [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the Chinese economy and relevant sectors.