特朗普关税再袭 - 港股&海外周论

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade tensions on the stock market, particularly focusing on the U.S. and Hong Kong markets [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. Economic Impact: The government shutdown is expected to reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% weekly, with potential implications for employment rates due to Trump's layoff strategy [2][5]. - Trade Tensions: Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, which could increase inflation risks in the U.S. and hinder further interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Market Reactions: Recent data shows developed markets fell by 0.9%, while emerging markets rose by 3%. The Dow Jones dropped nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively [2]. - Hong Kong Market Outlook: The Hong Kong market is expected to trend upwards in the medium to long term, supported by global easing cycles, the potential of tech leaders, and advantages in China's AI development [2][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - AI Bubble Concerns: There is a growing discussion about the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, with the IMF warning of potential risks of a market correction [7][8]. - Upcoming Events: Key upcoming events include the release of U.S. CPI data, Oracle's AI World conference, and the court ruling on the legality of U.S. tariffs, which could significantly influence market trends [7][12]. - Foreign Investment Sentiment: Foreign investment in Chinese assets has weakened in the short term, but positive economic signals from the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session could attract renewed interest [10]. Future Market Predictions - U.S. Market: Short-term volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to strong economic fundamentals and potential policy changes [11][12]. - Hong Kong Market: The market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, driven by easing monetary policies and improving economic fundamentals in the first quarter of the following year [9][12].