“关键软件”的国产化率及市场空间测算

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the domestic software industry in China, particularly focusing on the localization of key software and the 信创 (Xinchuang) industry which is expected to accelerate by 2026 due to government mandates [1][4][3]. Key Software Localization - The localization rate of domestic operating systems in the government sector has reached 65%, but the overall rate is only 4.55%. By the end of 2025, the localization rate in the government sector is expected to exceed 80%, with a market size of over 1 trillion yuan [1][6]. - The localization rate for databases is low across various industries, with financial non-core systems at 40%, energy at 15%, and many sectors below 5%. The domestic database market is projected to reach 668 billion yuan by 2025, growing to over 800 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [1][9]. - Middleware localization has increased to 45%, with financial, telecommunications, and government sectors exceeding 70%. The middleware market is expected to reach 160 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% in 2023 [1][11]. Market Dynamics - The Office software localization rate in the government and civilian B-end is around 40%-50%, with Kingsoft WPS holding a significant market share. The government sector has achieved 100% localization [1][14]. - The ERP market has the highest localization rate among industrial software, exceeding 70%. The market size is expected to be around 500-600 billion yuan by 2025, growing at 10%-15% annually [1][17]. - The R&D design software sector, including EDA, CAD, and CAE, has low localization rates of 10%-15% for EDA and CAE, and 25%-30% for CAD. The market space for these segments is significant, with EDA alone estimated at 120-140 billion yuan [1][19]. Company Performance and Valuation - Representative companies in the database sector include 达梦数据 (Dameng Data), with a projected PS ratio of 22x in 2025, and 太极股份 (Taiji Co.), with a PS ratio of 1.9x [1][10]. - In the middleware sector, companies like 宝兰德 (Baolande) and 普元信息 (Puyuan Information) are highlighted, with PS ratios of 8.94x and a competitive market landscape [1][12]. - The R&D design software companies are experiencing varied growth rates, with 华大九天 (HuaDa JiuTian) expected to grow by 20% due to reliance on a single client, while others like 广立微 (Guangliwei) are expanding rapidly [1][21]. Regulatory Impact - The 79th document from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission mandates that state-owned enterprises complete the localization of information systems by 2027, which is expected to drive significant growth in the domestic software market [1][4]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the rapid development and localization of key software in China, driven by government policies and market demand. The potential for growth in various software sectors, particularly in databases, middleware, and ERP systems, presents significant investment opportunities. The performance of leading companies in these sectors indicates a robust market environment, despite challenges in localization rates across certain software categories.