存储器更新：前所未有的超级周期-Memory Refresh_ Unprecedented Supercycle

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry, particularly memory segments (DRAM, NAND, NOR Flash), is experiencing an unprecedented supercycle driven by AI demand [1][2][3] - Chinese memory players are aggressively expanding capacity to meet rising demand [1][2] Key Points on DRAM - DDR4 Shortage: Expected to continue until at least Q4 2026, with a projected 10-15% undersupply over the next three quarters [2][10][12] - Price Increases: Nanya Tech reported a preliminary revenue increase of 79% Q/Q, with average selling prices (ASPs) expected to rise at least 20% Q/Q as market dynamics favor sellers [2][11] - Market Dynamics: Mainstream memory vendors have ceased providing pricing quotes to enterprise customers, indicating potential for further price increases [2] Key Points on NAND - Divergent Demand: NAND demand is increasing significantly in AI applications, with CSPs doubling their NL eSSD orders for 2026 [3][48] - Projected Shortages: Anticipated 2% NAND shortage in 2026, with a bull case projecting shortages widening to 8% by year-end [3][48] - Price Expectations: NAND pricing is expected to rise by at least mid-teens percentage in 2026, benefiting companies like Phison [3][48] Key Points on NOR Flash - Pricing Support: NOR pricing is expected to remain strong due to capped supply growth and potential demand from IoT applications [4] - Market Share: AirPods could account for 5-10% of global NOR demand by 2026, indicating sustained price hikes [4] Company-Specific Insights - Price Target Adjustments: Price targets raised for Nanya Tech (from NT$90 to NT$110), Phison (from NT$800 to NT$1,000), and Silicon Motion (from US$88 to US$100) [7] - Investment Recommendations: Companies like Nanya Tech, Winbond, and GigaDevice are favored due to expected price hikes in DRAM [5][16] - Long-term Outlook: Phison's earnings estimates revised upwards by 3% for 2026 and 6% for 2027, reflecting strong NAND pricing trends [68] Additional Insights - Localization Trends: Ongoing localization of wafer fab equipment in China is expected to strengthen the domestic semiconductor industry [59][61] - Capacity Expansion: CXMT and YMTC are set to expand their capacities significantly, with CXMT potentially exceeding 300k wpm by 2026 [61][62] - Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the semiconductor industry remains attractive, with strong growth prospects driven by AI and memory demand [7][59] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on memory segments and specific companies within the Greater China region.