中国必需消费品成本指数追踪_2025 年 9 月_饮料、聚酯、酵母成本同比回落，啤酒成本上升；持续下降-China Consumer Staples Cost Index Tracker_ Sep 2025_ Easing cost for Beverage_Pet_Yeast yoy while higher for Beer; continued falling

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Consumer Staples sector, specifically analyzing cost trends in various sub-sectors including beer, condiments, dairy, beverages, prepared food, and pet food [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Cost Trends: Most staples players are expected to experience cost tailwinds in 2025, albeit at smaller magnitudes compared to 2024. Key raw materials such as SPI, bean pulp, vegetables, and pork have seen price reductions ranging from 3% to 27% year-over-year [2][3]. - Raw Material Costs: - Barley prices decreased by 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) and are down 4% year-over-year (YoY). Most players have locked in barley prices with benefits ranging from mid-single digits to high-single digits percentage [3]. - Molasses prices fell by 8% MoM, indicating a 14% YoY decline, which is beneficial for yeast producers [4]. - Soybean prices increased slightly by 0.7% MoM, while bean pulp prices declined by 1.8% MoM [3]. - Sector-Specific Cost Index Changes: - The Frozen Bakery cost index decreased by 1.6% MoM, while the Beverage cost index fell by 1.1% MoM due to lower costs of milk powder, sugar, and cocoa [4]. - The Compound Condiments cost index increased by 0.7% MoM, primarily due to higher soybean prices [5]. - The Prepared Meal cost index rose by 0.4% MoM, driven by higher prices for beef, shrimp, and raw milk [8]. Additional Important Insights - Cost Impact Analysis for 2025: - The theoretical cost impact analysis ranks pet food, soy sauce, and food & beverages as having the most significant cost benefits on average. The expected gross profit margin (GPM) expansion is highest for soy sauce, followed by beer and frozen food [43]. - Raw Milk Pricing: Domestic raw milk prices have stabilized at approximately Rmb3.02/kg, offering a significant price advantage over imported dry powder prices, which is a reversal from previous trends [33][34]. - Imported Milk Products: The volume of imported milk powder grew by 13% YoY, while imported dry milk products increased by 3% YoY [37][41]. Conclusion - The China Consumer Staples sector is experiencing a mixed landscape of cost pressures and benefits, with significant variations across different sub-sectors. The analysis indicates potential opportunities for cost savings and margin improvements, particularly in pet food and soy sauce, while also highlighting the challenges posed by rising prices in certain categories like compound condiments and prepared meals [2][43].