全球存储半导体：高带宽存储器（HBM）更新- 纳入 OpenAI 与 Gaudois 因素Global I_O Memory Semis _HBM Update_ factoring in Open AI_ Gaudois

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) segment within the semiconductor industry, particularly influenced by developments in AI and Open AI ASICs [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - HBM Consumption Forecasts: - The forecast for HBM end-consumption has been increased by 1% in 2025 to 17.1 billion Gb (+99% YoY) and by 4% in 2026 to 27.2 billion Gb (+59% YoY) [2]. - HBM industry revenues are projected to reach US$33.2 billion in 2025 (+103% YoY) and US$54.5 billion in 2026 (+64%) [2]. - By 2026, HBM is expected to account for 9% of total DRAM industry bit shipments and 29% of total revenues [2]. - Nvidia and Open AI ASICs: - Nvidia's procurement assumptions have been revised to 7.4 million AI GPU units in 2026 (up from 7.0 million) [2]. - Open AI ASICs are expected to contribute 0.7 million units in 2026, potentially reaching 10% of total HBM industry consumption by 2027 [3]. - Market Share Projections: - For 2026, SK Hynix is projected to hold 51% of the HBM bit market share, with Micron at 25% and Samsung at 24% [4]. - SK Hynix is expected to maintain a significant share with >60% at Nvidia, 67% at Google, and 84% at Amazon [4]. Stock Preferences - The report recommends a Buy rating for SK Hynix with a price target of Won 516,000 (up from Won 434,000), followed by Micron (Buy) and Samsung (Neutral, price target Won 93,000 from Won 85,000) [5]. Additional Important Insights - Execution Risks: There are potential execution risks associated with new ASIC projects, particularly for Open AI, which may affect the anticipated ramp-up in production [3]. - Capex Forecasts: Due to expected high volumes, DRAM capital expenditure forecasts for both Samsung and SK Hynix have been increased for 2027 [3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential in the HBM market driven by AI advancements and the competitive landscape among major semiconductor players.