半导体生产设备 - 海外投资者调研反馈（香港、新加坡）Semiconductor Production Equipment-Feedback on Visits to Overseas Investors (Hong KongSingapore)

Summary of Semiconductor Production Equipment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) in Japan - Key Companies Mentioned: Disco, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Lasertec, Ulvac Core Insights - Investor Sentiment: There is strong interest in the SPE industry due to rising share prices, but investors are cautious about stock selection. Disco is recommended as a laggard compared to Advantest, which has seen a significant price increase of 76% since August 1, 2025, while Disco's share price rose only 22% in the same period [4][9] - Market Drivers: The growth in the SPE market is attributed to: 1. Increased demand for flash memory due to HDD shortages 2. Improved growth outlook for the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market 3. Increased foundry investment expected in 2026 [4][9] Company-Specific Insights - Disco's Earnings Forecast: Projected sales growth of 45% YoY and operating profit growth of 62% for F3/27. Key drivers include: 1. HBM demand driven by AI 2. Recovery in the smartphone market (OSAT) 3. VCS for edge AI 4. Transition to 12-inch SiC wafers 5. Adoption of hybrid bonding processes for flash memory 6. WMCM and PLP equipment [5][9] - Advantest's Market Position: Maintains a 90% market share in AI ASICs, with sales prices for its SoC testers being at least 30% higher than competitors [14] - Tokyo Electron: Positive outlook on cryo-etching equipment adoption, but risks exist due to potential market share loss from dry resist technology [15] - Ulvac: Notable interest in their front-end equipment, with growing sales of PLP and MHM systems to China [21] Market Trends and Risks - HBM Market Growth: Significant demand for DRAM in AI data centers, with OpenAI requiring production capacity equivalent to 900,000 wafers monthly. Global HBM production capacity is expected to reach 350KWPM by the end of 2025 [10] - China's Impact: Risks associated with US export restrictions on SPE to China could negatively affect the market. However, back-end equipment regulations may be less stringent due to China's advancements in domestic production [22][23] Valuation and Risks - Disco Valuation: Target P/E ratio set at 25.1x based on historical performance. Expected EPS for F3/28 is ¥2,799.6 [25] - Upside Risks: Growth in edge AI equipment demand and recovery in smartphone markets could drive further growth [26] - Downside Risks: Sluggish global electronics demand and prolonged replacement cycles for smartphones could hinder market recovery [27] Conclusion The Semiconductor Production Equipment industry in Japan is poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increased demand in various sectors, particularly AI. However, investors should remain cautious due to market volatility and geopolitical risks, particularly concerning China. Disco is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity amidst this landscape.