2025-10-13 01:00Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's wind supply chain, which includes wind turbines and cables, showing a positive outlook despite a recent 24% rally in major stocks [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Earnings Recovery: Earnings are recovering from a low base due to resilient wind installation demand, recovering turbine prices, and an increasing share of high-margin segments such as high-voltage cables and offshore wind [1][2]. 2. Wind Project Bidding Volume: In the first nine months of 2025, total wind project winning bid volume reached approximately 130GW, a 6% year-over-year increase, with domestic volume at 108GW [2]. 3. Offshore Wind Growth: The overseas bidding volume surged by 166% year-over-year, accounting for over 17% of total volume, indicating strong momentum in international markets [2]. 4. Price Trends: Onshore wind turbine bidding prices rose by 14% year-over-year in Q3 2025, reflecting firm pricing in the market [2][26]. 5. Policy Support: The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide further support for wind and solar capacity targets, aiming for 3,600 GW by 2035 [3]. Company-Specific Insights Cables 1. Preference for Cables: The analysis favors cable companies (Zhongtian and Ningbo Orient) over turbine manufacturers due to more attractive valuations, with Zhongtian expected to see better growth prospects in its optical cable business [4][41]. 2. Earnings Adjustments: Earnings for Zhongtian and Ningbo Orient have been lifted by an average of 9% for 2026-27, reflecting higher subsea cable margins [4][34]. Turbines 1. Earnings Growth: Goldwind and Mingyang's earnings for 2026-27 have been increased by 8% and 13% respectively, driven by better overseas and offshore wind growth [5]. 2. Market Position: Goldwind leads the domestic onshore wind turbine bidding with a 19% market share, while Envision leads overseas with a 37% market share [12][14]. Financial Metrics and Valuations 1. Valuation Comparisons: Cable providers are trading at 12-26x 2026E PE, with Ningbo Orient trading at a premium but still below its historical average [33][41]. 2. Earnings Estimates: New earnings estimates for Zhongtian Tech for 2025-27E are RMB 3,121 million, RMB 4,073 million, and RMB 5,070 million respectively, reflecting a 9% average increase [34][35]. Additional Important Insights 1. High-Margin Segments: The growing share of high-margin businesses, particularly in offshore wind projects, is a significant driver for future earnings [3][4]. 2. Future Projects: A total of 38.5GW of offshore projects are expected to be connected in 2025-26, indicating robust future growth in the sector [31]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the positive outlook for the wind supply chain in China, the recovery in earnings, and the strategic positioning of key companies within the industry.