2025-10-13 01:00Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, specifically the CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology utilized by companies like Nvidia and Broadcom [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Demand Forecasts for CoWoS: - Nvidia's CoWoS demand estimates have been raised by 5% for 2025 and 26% for 2026, driven by higher production units of the Blackwell architecture, which is expected to increase by 30% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025 [2]. - Total GPU production units for Nvidia at TSMC are projected to be 6.9 million in 2025 and 7.4 million in 2026, up from previous estimates of 6.5 million and 6.7 million respectively [2]. 2. Rubin Production at TSMC: - Nvidia's Rubin production at TSMC is on track, with an increase in production units estimated from 1.3 million to 2.3 million in 2026 [3]. - Trial production of Rubin chips is expected to conclude soon, with sample shipments to supply chain partners anticipated this quarter [3]. 3. New Product Launch - Rubin CPX: - The introduction of the Rubin CPX SKU, which features a single GPU die and utilizes GDDR7, is expected to drive additional CoWoS demand [4]. - CoWoS demand for Nvidia is forecasted to rise from 444,000 units in 2025 to 678,000 units in 2026 due to the CPX and Rubin ramp-up [4]. 4. Stock Recommendations: - TSMC is recommended as a leading foundry for Cloud/Edge AI, benefiting from its advanced packaging capabilities [5]. - ASE is also highlighted as a key beneficiary in the advanced packaging and testing sector [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. Valuation Comparisons: - A detailed valuation comparison table shows TSMC with a market cap of $1,225,437 million and a target price of NT$1,570, while ASE has a market cap of $25,042 million with a target price of NT$189 [6]. 2. Revenue Projections: - CoWoS/2.5D packaging revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching $13,423 million by 2026, with Nvidia's revenue expected to hit $7,970 million in the same year [9]. 3. Market Dynamics: - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape and the rapid technological changes in the semiconductor industry, which pose both opportunities and risks for companies involved [18][19][20]. 4. Investment Risks: - The report outlines various risks associated with tech investing, including volatility in financial results and challenges in valuation due to the dynamic nature of the market [18][19][20]. 5. Analyst Certifications: - Analysts involved in the report have certified that their views reflect their personal opinions and were prepared independently [23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Nvidia and Broadcom's CoWoS technology and the implications for TSMC and ASE.