如何看待近期猪价持续回落

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Trends Industry Overview - The swine industry is currently experiencing a significant decline in pig prices, with national average prices dropping below 5.5 yuan per kilogram, leading to severe losses for breeding enterprises [1][2][3] - Factors contributing to the price drop include a sharp decrease in slaughter volumes post-holiday, delayed market entry of breeding enterprises, and environmental pressures in southern regions causing unsold piglets [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - Price Trends: The average price of pigs has fallen sharply from a peak of 7 to 7.5 yuan per kilogram in the first half of 2025 to below 5.5 yuan, indicating a significant market downturn [2] - Supply and Demand Dynamics: It is anticipated that pig supply will continue to increase in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026, while consumer demand remains limited, leading to a pessimistic outlook among breeding enterprises [5][6] - Breeding Strategies: Breeding enterprises are expected to increase their slaughter volumes to dilute costs, with no reduction in overall output anticipated [6][12] - Market Sentiment: Smallholders are still engaging in speculative buying despite low prices, indicating a high-risk market environment [8] Additional Important Points - Future Price Predictions: Prices are expected to remain volatile, with October potentially being the lowest point of Q4, followed by a slight improvement in November due to seasonal demand [9][16] - Piglet Prices: The price of piglets is projected to continue declining, with a bottom index for 7 kg piglets estimated between 100 to 120 yuan, indicating further room for price drops [3][10] - Culling Trends: The current high prices for culling sows suggest that the market has not yet seen significant capacity reduction, as prices should ideally reflect a lower market equilibrium [7][11] - Environmental Regulations: Strict environmental policies in southern regions are exacerbating market pressures, leading to difficulties in breeding and increased need for culling to alleviate housing pressures [18] Conclusion The swine industry is facing a challenging environment characterized by declining prices, increased supply, and limited demand. Breeding enterprises are adapting by increasing slaughter volumes, but the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic. The interplay of environmental regulations and market dynamics will continue to shape the industry's trajectory in the coming months.