旺季大跌后，猪周期如何演绎？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The global ETF gold holdings have significantly increased, with a net inflow of 146 tons year-to-date, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. The North American market contributed the majority of this increase, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic risks, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The oil market is under pressure due to global risk asset sell-offs, despite OPEC's October meeting aligning with expectations for a slight reduction in production increases. Brent crude oil is expected to find support at around $60 per barrel [1][4] - The copper market is experiencing supply-side risks, particularly due to a Freeport incident leading to a supply-demand imbalance. Long-term fundamentals remain positive, with expectations of a copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 [1][6] Key Points on Specific Markets Gold Market - The rise in gold prices since September is primarily driven by safe-haven demand rather than expectations of interest rate cuts. The increase in ETF holdings in non-U.S. regions, especially Asia, is noteworthy [1][5] Oil Market - OPEC's recent actions included accelerating production cuts from April to September, with Saudi Arabia increasing production by approximately 1 million barrels. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure due to seasonal declines in downstream consumption and rising U.S. inventories [1][3][4] Pork Market - The pork market has seen a significant decline in prices, with a 15% drop in 2025 attributed to increased supply during peak seasons without a corresponding rise in demand. Future developments in the pork cycle will depend on supply-demand balance, policy adjustments, and breeding costs [1][7][8] - For October to November, pork prices are expected to continue declining, with planned slaughter volumes increasing by 5.5% and high slaughter weights maintained [1][9] - The medium-term outlook suggests that pork prices will not rebound significantly from Q4 2025 to H1 2026 due to ongoing supply pressures from increasing piglet numbers and policy measures affecting supply dynamics [1][10] - Long-term projections for H2 2026 indicate a target of 39 million breeding sows, with current losses in breeding profits accelerating the culling process. However, any significant capacity reduction in the near term may provide some price rebound opportunities [1][11] Additional Insights - The copper market is expected to remain in a state of shortage from 2025 to 2026, with favorable long-term fundamentals supporting price increases despite short-term market risk preferences [1][6] - The current futures market shows the 11 contract at a balanced state, indicating some supply pressure has been alleviated, while potential opportunities exist in the 09 contract due to deep losses in the 11 contract [1][12]