中国电池图表集 -2025 年 10 月-China Battery Chartbook_ Oct 2025

Summary of China Battery Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China battery market, particularly the export data and price expectations for batteries as of August 2025 [5][66]. Key Points and Arguments Battery Export Data - Total battery exports (including consumer batteries and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)) increased by 45% year-over-year (YoY) in August 2025 and 67% YoY in the first eight months of 2025 [5][75]. - Export breakdown: - United States: 21% of total export volume in 8M25, with a 28% YoY increase, but a 60% month-over-month (MoM) decline back to May levels [5]. - Europe: 36% of total export volume in 8M25, with a 65% YoY increase and a 24% MoM increase in August 2025. The growth is attributed to both Electric Vehicle (EV) battery demand and emerging demand for Energy Storage Systems (ESS) [5]. - Rest of the World (RoW): 42% of total export volume in 8M25, with a 99% YoY increase, contributing approximately 107 GWh of exports [5]. Price Expectations - There is caution regarding sustained price increases in the battery market despite short-term tightness. Seasonal strengths in Q4 2025 may lead to temporary price rebounds, but a sustainable price hike is deemed unlikely due to expected seasonal weakness in Q1 2026 [5]. - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 10% price hike could result in a 30%-60% earnings upside in 2026E. Companies like Gotion, CALB, and EVE Energy are noted to be more sensitive to battery price hikes [5]. Market Dynamics - The 30%-80% rally in share prices over the past 60 trading days is believed to have already priced in 2%-5% battery Average Selling Price (ASP) hikes for 2026E [5]. - The battery supply chain shows varied utilization trends across different components, with notable increases in separator and electrolyte prices [8][37]. Company Performance - CATL, BYD, and CALB are highlighted as key players in the domestic battery installation market, with varying month-over-month growth rates [54][56]. - Sales volume for major companies in August 2025 shows significant YoY growth, with BTR at 44.1 kt (+62% YoY) and Shanshan at 46.2 kt (+40% YoY) [60]. Additional Insights - The European BEV market saw a 25% YoY sales growth in the first half of 2025, which is a significant driver for battery imports from China [5]. - Emerging markets with high solar installation percentages, such as the Netherlands, Bulgaria, and Greece, are increasingly importing batteries despite limited EV production [5]. Conclusion - The China battery market is experiencing robust growth in exports, particularly to Europe and the RoW, driven by both EV and ESS demand. However, expectations for sustained price increases are tempered by anticipated seasonal fluctuations and a balanced supply-demand dynamic. Key players are positioned to benefit from potential price hikes, but market conditions will require careful monitoring.