美国股票策略-贸易升级是新一轮牛市中迟来调整的催化剂-US Equity Strategy-Weekly Warm-up Trade Escalation Is Catalyst for Overdue Correction within New Bull Market

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the US Equity Market and the implications of trade policy uncertainty, particularly concerning China. The current market is characterized as a new bull market that began in April 2025, with recent trade escalations acting as a catalyst for a potential correction. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Market Correction Catalyst: The unexpected escalation in trade tensions with China has triggered a correction in the equity market, which was already due given high valuations and unfavorable seasonal trends. The market experienced its weakest performance since April 2025 due to these factors [4][7][9]. 2. Volatility Expectations: The baseline scenario anticipates continued volatility in the near term, with potential for a larger correction (10-15% in S&P 500 terms) if trade tensions do not de-escalate by early November. This is based on technical analysis and market positioning [4][12][9]. 3. Earnings Season Dynamics: The upcoming earnings season is expected to show increased stock-specific risk and dispersion in earnings estimates. The S&P 500 is projected to see an 8% year-over-year increase in earnings for Q3, with sales expected to rise by 4% [53][57]. 4. Impact of Trade Policy: The potential for a 100% tariff on China, effective November 1, poses a significant risk to the US industrial supply chain and could negate the current recovery narrative. The effective global tariff rate is expected to reach approximately 16% by year-end [6][13][42]. 5. Sector Preferences: The healthcare sector is highlighted as a preferred defensive sector amidst trade uncertainties. In contrast, the Consumer Discretionary Goods sector is underweighted due to its high exposure to tariffs from China [4][14]. Additional Important Insights 1. Earnings Revisions Breadth: There has been a consolidation in earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500, which may lead to weaker surprise rates in the upcoming quarter. The current revisions breadth stands at 12%, with expectations of a decline to 5% [17][19][23]. 2. Long-term Economic Outlook: Despite the near-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for earnings to improve further into 2026. The quality factor is seen as a hedge against policy uncertainty [4][9][14]. 3. Technological and Geopolitical Themes: The call also touched on broader themes such as technology diffusion, longevity, and the multipolar world, emphasizing the role of AI and geopolitical factors in shaping market dynamics [41][42]. Conclusion The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of the US equity market, highlighting the significant impact of trade policy uncertainty on market performance and sector dynamics. The insights into earnings expectations and sector preferences offer valuable guidance for investors navigating the evolving landscape.