美国关税转嫁情况更新-US Daily_ An Update on Tariff Passthrough (Peng _ Mericle)

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economy, specifically regarding the effective tariff rates and their implications for consumer prices and inflation forecasts [2][10][29]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Effective Tariff Rate Increase: The U.S. effective tariff rate has risen by 9 percentage points (pp) through August, with an expected total increase of 12pp in 2025 and an additional 3.5pp by 2026, totaling 15.5pp [2][6][9]. 2. Tariff Cost Distribution: The distribution of tariff costs is estimated as follows: U.S. consumers will absorb 55%, U.S. businesses 22%, foreign exporters 18%, and about 5% will be evaded [24][26]. 3. Impact on Consumer Prices: Tariff effects have raised core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by 0.44% so far this year, with a forecasted additional boost of 0.6% from future tariffs [29][35]. 4. Passthrough Rate: The passthrough rate to consumer prices has reached 55% after six months, which is significantly lower than the rates observed during the 2018-2019 trade war [16][21]. 5. Inflation Forecasts: The core PCE inflation is projected to be 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025 (2.2% net of tariff effects) and 2.4% in December 2026 (2% net of tariff effects) [35][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. Comparison with Previous Tariff Periods: The current situation shows that foreign exporters are absorbing some tariff costs by reducing export prices, which contrasts with the 2018-2019 trade war where import prices remained stable [11][12]. 2. Market Dynamics: The analysis suggests that U.S. businesses are currently bearing a larger share of the tariff costs due to the recent implementation of tariffs, which takes time to pass on to consumers [24][25]. 3. Potential Evasion: There is an estimated 5% of tariff costs that may be evaded through underreporting of import values, particularly by exporters facing high U.S. tariff rates [12][24]. 4. Exchange Rate Effects: The depreciation of the dollar is expected to amplify the impact of tariffs on prices, adding approximately 0.2% to core PCE prices due to a 7% trade-weighted dollar depreciation [32][34]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of tariff policies on the U.S. economy, consumer prices, and inflation forecasts.