2025-10-13 15:12Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: China Healthcare - Quarter: 3Q25 Key Companies and Revenue Growth Companies with Higher Revenue Growth 1. United Imaging - Expected revenue growth: 44% YoY in 3Q25 - Growth driven by improved hospital bidding data in China [1][6] 2. Lepu - Expected revenue growth: 38% YoY in 3Q25 - Growth factors: - Low base effect from 3Q24 due to "Four Same" policy impacting pharmaceutical business - Incremental revenue from consumer healthcare segment, particularly medical aesthetics [1][6] 3. Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals - Expected revenue growth: 23% YoY in 3Q25 - Benefits from insulin VBP renewal and progress in overseas expansion [1][6] Companies Under Pressure 1. Zhifei - Currently in the trough of its revenue cycle - Revenue expected to decline by 30% YoY in 3Q25 - Increased competition following Wantai's launch of a 9-valent HPV vaccine - Offering discounts to accelerate inventory destocking [2][6] 2. ICL Companies (Kingmed and Dian Diagnostics) - Expected to post negative revenue growth in 3Q25 - Industry pricing pressure has stabilized, indicating potential for positive growth in 4Q25 [2][6] Financial Estimates and Changes - Tonghua Dongbao: Revised annual earnings estimates upward due to market share gains post-insulin VBP renewal [7] - Kelun: Revised net profit estimates downward due to ongoing price war in the API industry, while revenue estimates remain unchanged [7][10] Detailed Financial Estimates Exhibit 1: Revenue and Earnings Growth Preview - United Imaging: Revenue from 1,621 million to 2,327 million (44% YoY) - Lepu: Revenue from 1,402 million to 1,937 million (38% YoY) - Gan & Lee: Revenue from 930 million to 1,140 million (23% YoY) - Zhifei: Revenue from 4,528 million to 3,177 million (-30% YoY) [6] Exhibit 2: Updated Estimates for Tonghua Dongbao (2025E to 2027E) - Revenue: Increased from 2,612 million to 2,689 million (3.0% change) - Net Profit: Increased from 401 million to 408 million (1.5% change) [8] Exhibit 3: Updated Estimates for Kelun (2025E to 2027E) - Revenue: Remains at 19,029 million (0.0% change) - Net Profit: Decreased from 2,791 million to 2,686 million (-3.8% change) [10] Risks and Methodology - Mindray: Target price of Rmb314 with risks including VBP impacts and market penetration challenges [12][13] - SNIBE: Target price of Rmb73 with risks from competition and policy changes [14] - Hualan: Target price of Rmb19 with risks from regulatory changes and competition [15] - Tonghua Dongbao: Neutral rating with target price of Rmb9, risks from product sales ramp-up and competition [17] - Kelun: Neutral rating with target price of Rmb38, risks from API price declines [18] Conclusion - The China healthcare sector is experiencing varied growth dynamics, with certain companies like United Imaging and Lepu showing strong revenue growth, while others like Zhifei face significant challenges. The financial estimates reflect these trends, with adjustments made based on market conditions and competitive pressures.