大中华区科技半导体-iPhone 销量强劲对大中华区半导体的影响-Greater China Technology Semiconductors-Stronger iPhone Sales Implications for Greater China Semis

Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Technology Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry, particularly influenced by stronger iPhone sales and their implications for semiconductor stocks in the region [1][2]. Key Insights - iPhone Sales Estimates: Apple analyst Erik Woodring has increased iPhone sales estimates for 2026 by 4%, attributing 3% of this increase to unit sales and 1% to average selling price (ASP) [1]. - Sales Growth in China: Recent supply-chain checks indicate that iPhone sales in China have shown an 8.7% year-over-year growth in unit sales over the past few weeks, driven by strong sales momentum during the October holidays [2]. Impact on Semiconductor Stocks - The strong performance of iPhone sales is expected to positively affect several semiconductor stocks in Greater China: - TSMC: Overweight rating, with an estimated revenue exposure to iPhone of 10-20% [2]. - Novatek: Overweight rating, with an estimated revenue exposure of 5-10% [2]. - UMC: Equal-weight rating, with less than 10% revenue exposure [2]. - Win Semi: Underweight rating, with a significant revenue exposure of 40-45% [2]. - USI: Equal-weight rating, with a revenue exposure of 30-40% [2]. Valuation Methodology and Risks - UMC: Utilizes a base-case residual income model with key assumptions including a 9.2% cost of equity and a 6.0% medium-term growth rate [7]. - TSMC: Also employs a residual income model, with a cost of equity of 9.2% and an intermediate growth rate of 10.5% [8]. - Novatek: Assumes a cost of equity of 9.8% with a medium-term growth rate of 8.1% [9]. Risks Identified - Upside Risks: - Stronger-than-expected global economic and semiconductor growth [11]. - Favorable customer mix changes [11]. - Downside Risks: - Increased pricing competition leading to reduced margins [11]. - Weaker demand for leading-edge technologies [12]. Analyst Ratings - The report includes a list of companies with their respective ratings as of October 13, 2025, indicating a mix of Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight ratings across various semiconductor firms [76]. Conclusion - The Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry is currently viewed as attractive, with strong iPhone sales driving positive sentiment towards key semiconductor stocks. Analysts are closely monitoring the potential risks and growth opportunities within this sector [4].