绿电专题一：136号文转变行业发展逻辑，利好因素累积绿电有望否极泰来

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Green Energy (Renewable Energy) - Key Companies Mentioned: Longyuan, Datang Renewable, Jinneng Clean Energy, China Power, CGN New Energy Core Insights and Arguments - Cash Flow Improvement: The price of photovoltaic electricity has dropped to 0.22 yuan per kilowatt-hour, prompting green energy companies to invest cautiously in new projects. Since July, accelerated national subsidies have led to some companies receiving 2-3 times their total subsidies from the previous year, improving financial conditions [1][2]. - Valuation Recovery Potential: The valuation of the green energy sector has returned to levels seen before the dual carbon commitment. Major companies like Longyuan and Datang Renewable are currently trading below net asset value. The 136 document stabilizes returns on existing projects while increasing competition for new projects, which may drive valuations higher [1][3][4]. - Impact of Document 136: This document aims to promote the full marketization of renewable energy, ensuring returns on existing projects while requiring new projects to enter market-based trading and bidding. The competitive bidding results in Shandong in September showed photovoltaic prices at 0.22 yuan and wind power at 0.31 yuan, leading to more cautious investment in new projects by green energy companies [1][5]. - Future Installation Targets: From 2025 to 2035, China's average annual new installation capacity is expected to remain between 150 to 200 gigawatts, indicating continued large-scale promotion of renewable energy installations over the next decade [1][6]. - Dual Carbon Commitment Impact: Since the dual carbon commitment in 2020, China has shifted directly from coal to a new energy system primarily based on wind and solar power. This strategic decision has made wind and solar significant alternatives to coal and has driven electrification across various sectors [1][7]. - Trends in Green Energy Installation: Future installations in green energy are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to the previous five years. The focus will shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in new projects due to the marketization promoted by Document 136 [1][8]. - Subsidy Distribution: The acceleration of subsidy payments has significantly improved the balance sheets of green energy companies. From July to August 2024, companies received subsidies that were two to three times the total amount received in the previous year, addressing past subsidy arrears [3][9]. - Debt Situation: As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding subsidies across the country are estimated to be between 550 billion to 700 billion yuan, which has led to a high ratio of accounts receivable to net assets for companies like CGN New Energy and Longyuan [3][10][11]. - Green Consumption System Development: The green consumption system in China is gradually advancing, with a significant increase in "green certificate" trading, which reached 4,400 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, a 360% year-on-year increase. This system helps ensure a certain proportion of green electricity consumption [3][12]. - Regulations for High Energy Consumption Industries: In 2025, the government has imposed mandatory green electricity consumption ratios for high energy-consuming industries such as steel and electrolytic aluminum, transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [3][13]. - Market Performance of Major Listed Companies: Despite the positive factors, major listed companies like Datang Renewable and Longyuan are still trading below net asset value. However, the stabilization of returns on existing projects and accelerated subsidy payments may improve their financial health and drive future valuation recovery [3][4][14].