KE Holdings (BEKE) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: KE Holdings (BEKE) - Market Cap: $21.1 billion - Enterprise Value: $10.5 billion - 12-Month Price Target: $21.40 (current price: $18.01, upside: 18.8%) [1][5] Key Financial Forecasts - 3Q25 Revenue Forecast: Rmb 23.8 billion (2% above consensus) [1] - 3Q25 Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast: Rmb 1.3 billion (5% above consensus) [1] - 4Q25 Revenue Forecast: Expected decline of 15% YoY to Rmb 26.5 billion [23] - 2025 Revenue Growth: Total revenue expected to reach Rmb 99.64 billion [15] Core Insights - New Home GTV: Expected to decline by 8% YoY, but better than consensus [1] - Existing Home GTV: Expected to grow by 5% YoY, indicating a positive trend [1] - Cost Reduction: Fixed costs are being reduced through agent optimization, following a 6% QoQ decline in agent count [1] - Profitability of New Initiatives: Home renovation and rental services projected to generate Rmb 150 million operating profit in 3Q25, a significant improvement from a loss of Rmb 250 million in 3Q24 [1] Market Dynamics - Government Support: Recent supportive policies from provincial and municipal governments have stabilized the property market, including home purchase subsidies and easing restrictions [2] - Transaction Trends: 15 out of 43 tracked cities saw an increase in existing home transaction average selling price (ASP) month-over-month in September [2] - Cautious Outlook for 4Q25: Anticipated revenue and GTV declines due to high base effects from the previous year [2] Strategic Initiatives - Service Upgrades: KE Holdings has upgraded its service standards to enhance transaction security and efficiency, which is expected to drive market share gains [18] - Community-Focused Strategy: The company is shifting its home renovation business model to a community-focused approach, optimizing store formats to improve efficiency [18] Investment Considerations - Share Buybacks: KE has repurchased $281 million in 3Q25, totaling approximately $700 million year-to-date, which is equivalent to 3.2% of its market cap [19] - Long-Term Growth: New initiatives are expected to account for 47% of total revenue by 2027, up from 34% in 2024 [27] Financial Ratios and Valuation - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 22.3x in 2025 [12] - Dividend Yield: Projected at 2.1% for 2025 [12] - Free Cash Flow Yield: Expected to be 5.1% in 2025 [12] Conclusion - Investment Rating: Maintain "Buy" rating based on strong performance in new home GTV, cost reduction strategies, and profitability improvements in new initiatives [1][19]
贝壳 - 2025 年第三季度预览：新房成交总额可能超预期，固定成本降低且新业务盈利；升级服务旨在提升份额与效率；买入