中美紧张局势重现后，我们仍认为存在休战的可能性-We still see potential for a truce after renewed US-China tensions

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly focusing on trade relations and export controls related to rare earth materials and technology sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Escalation of US-China Tensions: On October 10, US President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods effective November 1, 2025, in response to China's recent trade actions, indicating that economic and trade clashes between the two superpowers are likely to continue [1][4]. 2. Cycle of Tension and Truce: The current US-China relationship is characterized by a cycle of tension, escalation, and temporary truces, which may be seen as the new normal. Historical parallels are drawn to the Korean War negotiations, suggesting that both sides may eventually return to the negotiating table after demonstrating their positions [2][4]. 3. China's Export Controls: China has tightened restrictions on rare earth exports, which are critical for high-tech and defense industries. This includes new rules requiring foreign entities to obtain approval for exporting materials containing even trace amounts of Chinese-origin rare earths [3][6]. 4. Mutual Dependence: Despite rising tensions, both countries remain reliant on each other. China accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining capacity, while the US exports critical technology and components to China. This interdependence may create opportunities for concessions [4][6]. 5. Impact on Soybean Imports: China has significantly reduced its purchases of US soybeans, which could severely impact US farmers. In the first three weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year, only 0.07 million tonnes of soybeans were sold to China, compared to 2.8 million tonnes during the same period the previous year [15]. 6. Chip Import Restrictions: China has tightened border inspections to prevent the import of advanced chips, particularly targeting Nvidia's AI chips, as part of its strategy to reduce reliance on US technology [16]. 7. Reciprocal Port Fees: China has introduced special port service fees for US-linked vessels, mirroring US fees on Chinese vessels, which reflects the escalating maritime tensions between the two nations [17][18]. 8. Antitrust Investigations: China has launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, which follows previous actions against the company for monopolistic practices. This indicates a continued scrutiny of foreign companies operating in China [22]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - China's Strategic Moves: China's recent actions, including the suspension of US soybean purchases and the introduction of export controls, are seen as strategic moves to leverage its bargaining position against the US [15][26]. - Long-term Implications: The ongoing trade tensions and the introduction of tariffs and export controls could have long-term implications for global supply chains, particularly in the technology and defense sectors [4][27]. - Diplomatic Space: There is a potential diplomatic space for negotiations, as the timelines for tariff implementations and export restrictions create opportunities for both sides to reconsider their positions [4][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the complexities of US-China relations and the potential implications for various industries.