地产｜近期弱弱的销售市场怎么看？

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the real estate market in China, focusing on major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, and the impact of recent government policies on market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - The overall performance of the real estate market in 2025 has been weak, particularly during the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October," with both new and second-hand home transaction volumes failing to meet previous years' levels [2][3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 17% year-on-year, indicating a better performance compared to new homes [5]. Policy Impact - Recent policies introduced in late August in Beijing and Shanghai had a short-term positive effect on the market, leading to a temporary increase in transaction volumes, but the long-term effects are expected to be limited [3][20]. - In Shanghai, the proportion of transactions in the outer suburban areas doubled from 36% to 76% following the new policies, with high-end luxury properties attracting significant interest from buyers across the country [6][18]. Price Trends - The average price of new homes in Shanghai in September was 86,472 yuan per square meter, up from 79,624 yuan per square meter in the previous year, indicating a stabilization of market structure but limited effectiveness of policies [18]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has seen a decline in prices since May, with a cumulative drop of approximately 6-7% year-to-date [10][15]. Regional Variations - The impact of policies varies significantly across different price segments and regions. For instance, the proportion of transactions for properties priced below 3 million yuan increased from 7.93% to 9.02%, while luxury properties above 15 million yuan rose from 13.9% to 19.22% [7][8]. - The inner and outer suburban areas of Shanghai experienced notable increases in transaction volumes, reflecting a shift in buyer preferences [11]. Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is facing challenges due to restrictions on the use of housing provident funds, which can only be applied to new homes, limiting the rebound potential for second-hand properties [5][9]. - Despite a stable number of listings in Shanghai's second-hand market, prices have been under pressure, particularly for older properties, although some quality segments have seen price stability or slight increases [10][13]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, with limited high-quality project supply and ongoing price declines in the second-hand market [22][24]. - The relationship between new and second-hand homes is complex, with the former needing support from the latter to drive overall market recovery [21][29]. Developer Performance - Developers like China Overseas, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly have shown strong land acquisition activity, which is crucial for their growth in the current environment [26]. - The overall inventory levels in major cities continue to rise, indicating potential long-term pressure on developers if they cannot effectively manage costs and land acquisition [25]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with solid fundamentals, such as Binjiang, China Merchants, and Poly, as well as local state-owned enterprises that may benefit from government policies [39][40]. - The current low valuation of real estate stocks presents potential opportunities for investment, especially if substantial policy improvements are realized [40]. Additional Important Insights - The land market is showing signs of structural weakness, with a decrease in land auction areas and lower premium rates, which could affect the quality of future development projects [33]. - The sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with expectations of further price declines unless significant policy interventions are made [35][36].